The new energy planning is good for carbon fiber and optimistic about the recovery of infrastructure and real estate
On Tuesday (March 22), the national development and Reform Commission issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th five year plan. The document pointed out that we should continue to promote the low-carbon transformation of energy, accelerate the development of renewable energy such as wind power, photovoltaic, hydropower, nuclear power, biomass energy and geothermal energy, and increase the proportion of non fossil energy consumption to about 20% by 2025. On Wednesday (March 23), the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) (hereinafter referred to as the plan), which is one of the “n” of the dual carbon “1 + n” policy system. The introduction of the top-level plan for hydrogen energy has played an important guiding role in the high-quality and sustainable development of the hydrogen energy industry. Hydrogen production routes are diverse. In the short and medium term, industrial by-product hydrogen is the main product, and the production of green hydrogen from renewable energy is the ultimate goal. However, due to large power consumption and high cost, the obstacles to large-scale application have not been removed. Therefore, in order to achieve the goal of green hydrogen, it is particularly important to use renewable energy at parity. By expanding the scale, the economy of photovoltaic and wind power can be improved, and the demand for photovoltaic glass, carbon fiber and glass fiber may further increase. In addition, transportation is an important breakthrough in hydrogen energy consumption, and the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles may increase significantly during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The “IV” type hydrogen storage bottle is most in line with the development trend of fuel cell vehicles. The increased demand for hydrogen storage bottles will further drive the growth of carbon fiber demand. In the context of “double carbon”, the low-carbon transformation of energy is the main line of certainty. Carbon fiber, photovoltaic glass and glass fiber will continue to benefit from the growth of demand. The target of benefit: carbon fiber leader: Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Zhongfu Shenying; Photovoltaic glass Faucet: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ; Glass fiber Faucet: China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) . Outbreaks have occurred in many places in China, affecting the project commencement rate, which restricts the recovery of demand to a certain extent, while the relief of capital pressure only appears on some key projects, and the recovery of real estate and infrastructure is expected to be better. On the whole, the fundamentals of building materials are weak due to the impact of demand. If the epidemic is controlled in the future, the infrastructure and real estate development under the steady growth policy will start, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to rebound significantly. Beneficiary objects: consumer building materials with greater flexibility under the expected improvement of real estate: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , China Liansu; The direction of the infrastructure industry chain is clear, and the beneficiaries are: Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
Market review this week
This week (March 21-march 25, 2022), the building materials index fell by 3.72%, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.14%, and the building materials index lost 1.58 percentage points to the CSI 300 index. In the past three months, the CSI 300 index fell 15.14%, the building materials index fell 16.88%, and the building materials sector lost 1.74 percentage points to the CSI 300 index. Over the past year, the CSI 300 index fell 17.28%, the building materials index fell 17.96%, and the building materials sector lost 0.68 percentage points to the CSI 300 index.
Plate data tracking
Cement: as of March 25, the national p.o42 5. The average price of bulk cement was 476.1 yuan / ton, down 0.24% month on month; The national clinker storage capacity ratio was 55.69%, with a month on month increase of 5.08%; The price difference between cement and coal was 271.35 yuan / ton, down 2.97% month on month.
Glass: as of March 25, the average spot price of float glass nationwide was 209466 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 135.12 yuan / ton, or 6.06%; The average price of photovoltaic glass was 162.5 yuan / weight box, unchanged month on month; Float glass inventory was 56.45 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.73 million weight boxes, or 5.08%; The price difference of float glass soda ash petroleum coke was 29.89 yuan / weight box, down 17.94% month on month; The price difference of float glass soda ash heavy oil was 34.7 yuan / weight box, with a month on month decrease of 5.46 yuan or 13.6%; The price difference of float glass soda ash natural gas was 45.13 yuan / weight box, a month on month decrease of 5.5 yuan / weight box, a decrease of 10.85%; The price difference of photovoltaic glass soda ash natural gas was 99.33 yuan / weight box, up slightly by 0.37% month on month.
Glass fiber: as of March 25, the mainstream ex factory price of alkali free 2400 winding direct yarn was Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited(600064) 50 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex jet ply yarn is 955010000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The mainstream price of 2400tex SMC ply yarn was 8 China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) 0 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. The mainstream transaction price of electronic yarn is about 10000 yuan / ton, which is basically the same month on month.
Carbon fiber: as of March 25, the average price of small tow carbon fiber in China was 225 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The average price of large tow carbon fiber in China was 145 yuan / kg, unchanged month on month; The national carbon fiber inventory was 13 tons, unchanged month on month; The operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises was 66.35%, down 1.72% month on month; The gross profit of carbon fiber was 5766667 yuan / ton, an increase of 400 yuan / ton month on month, or 0.7%.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; Supply and demand mismatch risk; Downside risk of economic growth; China’s monetary and real estate policies are becoming stricter; China’s credit is lower than expected
