The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues and intensifies. The global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price rises, and the planting sector is recommended
As the main port of Eurasian grain import and export trade in the Black Sea, Ukraine has suspended port commercial activities since February 24, and the insurance premium of Russian grain transport ships passing through the Black Sea has increased. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has plunged the global grain trade into great uncertainty. In addition, Europe and the United States continued to increase economic and trade sanctions against Russia, and food prices in major exporting countries rose sharply. Russia and Ukraine, as the world’s big granaries, the war disrupted the grain trade in the current season and further pushed up grain prices. At the same time, the new planting season in Ukraine will also face a sharp decline in the expected sowing area during the war or after the war, which may lead to the extension of the uncertain time cycle of food security.
China’s corn and barley are highly dependent on imports from Ukraine. The continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine may lead to the diversion of China’s corn and barley imports to other major exporting countries. In 2022, China may further increase the proportion of corn imports to the United States; In terms of barley, China’s barley imports may turn to Canada and the European Union in 2022. In terms of wheat, China’s wheat self-sufficiency rate is high, but due to the planting in 2021 / 2022 and the impact of late sowing autumn flood, China’s wheat production is expected to be reduced, or imports may be increased in 2022.
Zhou’s view: the reversal of the pig cycle is imminent, and food prices continue to rise due to multidimensional catalysis
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Market performance this week (3.21-3.25): Agriculture outperformed the market by 5.12 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19% and the agricultural index rose 3.93%, outperforming the market by 5.12 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the planting sector led the rise, with an increase of 10.94%. In terms of individual stocks, gains were led by Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) (+ 20.63%), Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (+ 20.45%), Xiwang Foodstuffs Co.Ltd(000639) (+ 15.92%).
Price tracking this week (3.21-3.25): pig, chicken, aquatic products and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose month on month. Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on March 25, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.18 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.54 yuan / kg over last week; The average price of piglets was 24.15 yuan / kg, up 0.19 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of white striped meat was 16.43 yuan / kg, up 16.43 yuan / kg from last week. On March 25, the price ratio of pig feed was 3.25:1. According to wind data, on March 25, the average profit of self breeding head was -549.21 yuan / head, compared with -2.05 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is -287.03 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -28.98 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 0.88 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 15.79%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.95 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 1.40%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was -0.85 yuan / feather, compared with -0.29 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
