Industrial metals: in foreign countries, the Fed raised interest rates, and the market’s concerns about raising interest rates have been mitigated. In addition, Western sanctions against Russia continue to increase, and energy prices may remain high. High inflation is expected to further support industrial metal prices. In China, this week, the industry department of the national development and Reform Commission held an analysis meeting on the industrial economic situation, emphasizing that all localities should put maintaining steady industrial growth in a more prominent position, pay close attention to formulating and issuing specific implementation plans and supporting policies, and take multiple measures to stabilize the operation of the industrial economy. This week, the national lending and real estate sales restriction policy in many places and the reduction of down payment and loan interest rate, the real estate market may pick up, and the demand for industrial metals may continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , Yunnan Tin Co.Ltd(000960) , etc.
Copper: the internal and external copper prices are upside down, and the copper price callback may be limited under the weakness of supply and demand
LME copper closed at US $10277 / ton, down about 0.28% during the week. In terms of fundamentals, SMM’s national copper inventory decreased by 23700 tons to 148800 tons month on month, at a low level. On the demand side, the demand in the copper market fell significantly this week. The high copper price led to no new orders for some downstream enterprises and insufficient demand. On the supply side, the epidemic in China continues, the transportation is limited due to the epidemic, and the inventory of refineries in some areas continues to accumulate. Due to the serious upside down of internal and external copper prices, the loss of imported copper expanded again, resulting in the reduction of China’s import demand and the continuous increase of export demand. Therefore, at present, spot copper tends to accumulate to the supply side and abroad. Under the weakness of supply and demand, copper prices may face callback pressure, but the callback range may be limited under low inventory.
Aluminum: aluminum rods continue to go to the warehouse, and high overseas costs support the high volatility of aluminum prices
LME aluminum closed at US $3625 / ton, up about 7% during the week. Basically, SMM’s national electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 50000 tons to 1039000 tons month on month, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 24400 tons to 151900 tons month on month. Aluminum rods continued to go to the warehouse this week, mainly due to the abnormal arrival caused by the epidemic, the backlog on the platform and the increase of goods in transit. In terms of profit, China’s alumina price rose slightly this week, other raw material ends remained stable as a whole, and the power coal market operated stably temporarily. According to the SMM spot and electrolytic aluminum real-time profit data model, China’s electrolytic aluminum real-time profit recorded 5047 yuan / ton on Friday, an increase of 418 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. In the short term, alumina prices are expected to rebound slightly under the influence of overseas markets, which will promote the growth of electrolytic aluminum costs. In addition, there is strong demand in the downstream of prebaked anode, but the supply growth is limited, and the price may rise sharply, which will promote the rise of electrolytic aluminum costs in China. At present, there are outbreaks in many places in China, the automobile transportation fee rises, the arrival cost of raw materials of enterprises rises to varying degrees, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high.
Tin: overseas energy costs are high, and tin prices are running at a high level
LME tin closed at US $42300 / ton, up 0.43% from last week. According to SMM, the operating rate of the production end this week decreased due to the equipment failure of individual smelters in Jiangxi last week. From January to February, China’s tin concentrate import increased significantly year-on-year. However, affected by the epidemic in Myanmar, the supply end of tin concentrate is still tight and China’s inventory fell. Last week, the demand side of China’s epidemic and high tin prices led to weak demand. According to SMM, the national SHFE tin ingot inventory decreased by 184 tons to 2106 tons month on month, and the unloading speed slowed down significantly. At present, there is still high uncertainty in geopolitics, and the increase of energy cost supports the price of tin.
Zinc: the landing of interest rate increase superimposed on the slow resumption of overseas production, and the zinc price is expected to run at a high level
LME zinc closed at US $4080 / ton, up 6.28% from last week. Overseas this week, although nyrstar restarted the auby smelter in France, the company also said that at present, only intermittent production has been resumed, and the conditions for full resumption of production have not been reached, and its impact on zinc price is limited. Zinc prices are expected to remain high against the background of the Fed’s interest rate hike, repeated geopolitical risks and high overseas energy prices. In terms of China’s fundamentals, SMM’s national zinc ingot inventory decreased by 3600 tons to 272600 tons month on month. The impact of the epidemic continues to expand, the logistics is limited, and the downstream just needs to purchase, resulting in a slowdown in the overall destocking speed. The stable growth policy in the future and the recovery of the real estate industry are expected to drive the high operation of zinc prices.
Energy metal: the price of energy metal fluctuated slightly this week and continued to be optimistic about the support of new energy demand for energy metal prices. It is suggested to be followed by the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Lithium: the rise of lithium price slowed down this week. Under the tight supply, lithium price may still remain high
The price of battery grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged this week, the transaction price was flat compared with last week, lithium hydroxide increased slightly, and the price difference between the two was further narrowed. The price of lithium concentrate will continue to rise between us $2895 and US $2895 in the future. At the smelting end, the output in the Salt Lake area has increased. However, due to the reduction of supply at the mine end, the overall output increment at the smelting end is not obvious, and the market supply is tight. On the demand side, ternary materials are affected by nickel price fluctuations and orders are affected to a certain extent; The monthly high inventory of lithium-ion batteries was affected by the suspension of lithium-ion batteries. On the whole, due to the limited release of resources and tight supply, the lithium price may still remain high.
Cobalt: both supply and demand are weak, and the price of electric cobalt fluctuated slightly this week
This week, the price of SMM electrolytic cobalt was 55 Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) 7000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2000 yuan / ton lower than last week. According to SMM, the price of cobalt intermediate products is 32.5-33 US dollars / pound, and the average price is 0.75 US dollars / pound higher than last week. The price of electrolytic cobalt fluctuated slightly this week. Electrolytic cobalt inventory continued to be removed. Due to the impact of the epidemic, there was less production demand in the downstream, both supply and demand decreased, and the surface of electric cobalt continued to change, resulting in the decline of electric cobalt price this week. The price of intermediate products is relatively stable this week. At present, the overseas price is rising, and the shipping problem has not been alleviated. However, China’s downstream demand is weak and the price transmission is poor. Therefore, the price of intermediate products rises slowly. Nickel: during the week, LME nickel rebounded strongly, driving the overnight Shanghai nickel limit. This week, LME nickel closed at US $36300 / ton, down 1.67% weekly. However, after the sharp decline of nickel price on Monday, Lun nickel rebounded sharply in the middle of the week. From the trading side, LME has high long concentration, limited liquidity, and some short positions choose to close after the margin ratio is increased. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the epidemic has intensified again, resulting in transportation difficulties, the premium of pure nickel has declined, but the absolute price is still high, and the current import is still at a loss, and China’s supply is still tight. From the demand side, stainless steel and ternary precursors still increased month on month in March compared with February. In the short term, nickel supply and demand may remain tense, superimposed on the impact of trading sentiment, and the nickel price may run at a high level.
Precious metals: market risk aversion is rising, and gold prices maintain an upward trend
COMEX gold closed at US $1957.6/ounce this week, up 1.88% from last week. As of the week of March 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was 187000, lower than the 210000 expected by the market, down 28000 from the previous week, the lowest in 53 years.
The positive employment data supported the Fed’s expectation of substantial interest rate hike, the US dollar index will maintain an upward trend, and the gold price is under pressure. On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued this week, and the two sides have not reached a consensus on a ceasefire. Meanwhile, following the suspension of the certification of all Russian gold smelters in the London gold market, the US Treasury announced this week that US individuals are prohibited from participating in any transaction involving the Russian central bank, the Russian national wealth fund or the Russian Ministry of finance, including transactions related to yellow gold. As the world’s second largest gold mining country, Russia’s move will significantly reduce gold supply in the global gold market and support gold prices. Global geopolitical uncertainty continues to challenge us dollar credit, gold’s risk aversion attribute is prominent, and gold prices will maintain an upward trend in the short term.
Rare earth: the market transaction is light, and the light rare earth market is weak and stable as a whole
The light rare earth market was generally weak and stable this week. Praseodymium neodymium oxide continued the downward trend last week at the beginning of the week, the mainstream transaction price decreased slightly to 1.01-1.02 million yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price of praseodymium neodymium metal was temporarily stable at 1.25-1.27 million yuan / ton; In the middle of the week, some trading enterprises shipped and left the site, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide continued to be reduced to 98-1 million yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price of praseodymium and neodymium metal market was reduced to 1.24-1.25 million yuan / ton; Near the weekend, the mainstream transaction price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was weakly stable, the market quotation of praseodymium and neodymium metal was temporarily stable at 1.22-1.23 million yuan / ton, and the inquiry activity of praseodymium and neodymium products increased. Heavy rare earth products continued to decline this week. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream transaction price of terbium oxide and lanthanum market was 13.9-14.2 million yuan / ton and 2.91-2.93 million yuan / ton. Near the weekend, the mainstream transaction price of terbium oxide and lanthanum market fell to 13.6-13.8 million yuan / ton and 2.85 million yuan / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fluctuated sharply, the demand for new energy fell sharply, and the macroeconomic performance was lower than expected
