Market review. As of March 25, 2022, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry rose by 2.26% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.40 percentage points and ranking fifth among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell 10.36% this month, 1.47 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, ranking 24th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals sector has fallen 6.24% year to date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 9.26 percentage points and ranking seventh among Shenwan’s 31 industries.
As of March 25, 2022, among the sub sectors of nonferrous metals industry this week, precious metals rose 9.22%, industrial metals rose 2.77%, energy metals rose 1.74%, small metals fell 0.13% and new metal materials fell 0.49%.
Zhou’s view on the nonferrous metals industry. Industrial metals. Macroscopically, since the Federal Reserve officially raised interest rates last week, the US dollar index has continued to rise. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is expected to start to shrink the table in May and June, and the tightening of monetary policy has put some pressure on the rise of copper prices. In China, the recent repeated outbreaks in Shanghai and other places have affected the circulation and supplement of raw materials at the supply end of China’s copper and aluminum market. At the same time, the epidemic has restrained the downstream demand of copper and aluminum. It is expected that the price of copper and aluminum will continue to fluctuate in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ( Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ), Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ( Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ), Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ). noble metal. On March 24 local time, the data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed that last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States fell to the lowest level since 1969, to 187000, a decrease of 28000 compared with the previous week. The economic data supported the expectation of raising interest rates in the United States. However, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to fluctuate in the short term and the current high inflation makes the precious metal market continue to rise. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the future interest rate increase process of the Federal Reserve. Energy metals. As of March 25, 2022, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 504000 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, and the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 482500 yuan / ton, slightly lower than last week. At present, the newly invested projects of upstream lithium salt manufacturers release less capacity, and the lithium industry chain is in short supply, and the market continues. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ( Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ), Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ( Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ).
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; The monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve and the European central bank exceeded expectations; Prices of energy metals and rare earths fell; The downstream demand of nonferrous metals is lower than expected; The impact of the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the fluctuation of industrial metal prices.
