Key investment points:
Market review: as of March 25, 2022, Shenwan auto sector fell 1.36% in the week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.78 percentage points, ranking 16th among Shenwan 31 industries. Among the five sub sectors of Shenwan automobile industry, only automobile service rose, the other sub sectors fell, and the auto parts sector fell the most. The specific performance is as follows: the automobile service sector rose 1.38%, the motorcycle and other sectors fell 0.31%, the commercial vehicle sector fell 0.78%, the passenger vehicle sector fell 1.49%, and the auto parts sector fell 1.62%. The top three companies with weekly growth were Sinomach Automobile Co.Ltd(600335) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Shenzhen Soling Industrial Co.Ltd(002766) , up 28.43%, 25.73% and 23.02% respectively. The top three companies with weekly declines were Zhongjie (Jiangsu) Technology Co.Ltd(301072) , Zhonglu.Co.Ltd(600818) , and concentric transmission, with declines of 18.36%, 15.69% and 12.49% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of March 25, the pettm of Shenwan automobile sector was 25 times, which was 66.67% in recent five years and 78.32% in recent ten years; In terms of sub sectors, the pettm of automobile service sector is 19 times, that of auto parts sector is 23 times, that of passenger car sector is 30 times, and that of commercial vehicle sector is 18 times.
View of Auto Industry Week: the auto sector continued to decline this week, slightly outperforming CSI 300. Among the sub sectors, the decline of auto parts and passenger cars was relatively higher. According to the passenger Federation, the average daily sales of major passenger car manufacturers in the first and second weeks of retail sales in March were – 13% and 3% respectively year-on-year; In the third week, under the influence of the epidemic in many places, the car market decreased by 29% year-on-year due to the slowdown of production and the closure of terminal stores. It is expected that the market will recover in the fourth week, driven by the impulse at the end of the month, with a year-on-year rate of about – 10%. In March, the sales volume of passenger cars is expected to decline year-on-year, which has a certain impact on the passenger cars and auto parts sector. In terms of new energy vehicles, with the decline of subsidies and the sharp rise of raw material prices, a number of auto enterprises have announced price increases recently, and the impact on subsequent orders needs to be further observed. In terms of policy, recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), which proposed to accelerate the technological innovation of proton exchange membrane fuel cell, focus on the R & D and manufacturing of core parts and key equipment, and put forward the development goals of about 50000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025, and deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality targets with relatively reasonable valuation after substantial adjustment in the early stage, as well as the core targets of the fuel cell vehicle industry chain: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ( China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ), Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) ( Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) ), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) ( Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) ).
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply, the production and sales of automobiles are less than expected, the improvement of chip supply is less than expected, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global automobile industry chain, the safety risk of electric vehicles, etc.
