Key investment points
This week (2022.3.21 – 2022.3.25, the same below): the building decoration sector (SW) rose or fell by - 0.97% this week. In the same period, the CSI 3 million and wandequan a index rose or fell by - 2.14% and - 1.41% respectively, and the excess return was 1.17% and 0.44% respectively.
Comments on important policies, event changes and data tracking of the industry: (1) the Ministry of transport held a video conference to accurately implement policies and spare no effort to expand effective investment in transportation: the meeting proposed to pay close attention to the implementation of the 14th five year plan, the pilot of building a strong transportation country, the planning and implementation of major projects, the preliminary work of construction projects, stabilizing rural road investment, etc, And strengthen the supervision and dynamic monitoring and analysis of the implementation of the 14th five year plan, and make full use of local government bond policies. We expect that transportation investment is expected to further develop, and the accelerated implementation of major transportation infrastructure projects is expected to boost the demand for cement and other physical goods. (2) CBRC: explore and innovate effective ways of financial support for rural infrastructure construction without increasing the implicit debt of local governments: the measures of CBRC to support rural revitalization include: solving the financial service problems of "new citizens", increasing medium and long-term credit investment, actively investing in rural construction, focusing on rural infrastructure construction, and without increasing the implicit debt of local governments, Explore and innovate effective ways of financial support for rural infrastructure construction. The key support of the financial policies of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission will broaden the financing channels for rural infrastructure construction, benefit relevant projects and speed up the implementation. (3) This week, Huaxia China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) high-speed REITs (508018. Of) was approved for registration.
Zhou viewpoint
Under the influence of the epidemic, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and the efforts to stabilize growth may be further strengthened. In addition to optimistic about the prosperity of the infrastructure chain, Wuhan relaxed the first set of interest rates this week, which shows that the accumulation of real estate pressure in second tier cities has reached the critical point of the policy. Under the escalation of epidemic control, the implementation of real estate relaxation policy may be accelerated. We suggest paying attention to the investment opportunities in the construction sector from the following three directions: (1) opportunities for valuation and repair of infrastructure municipal chain under the continuous force of steady growth: we believe that steady growth will still be in the process of continuous overweight, wide currency + wide finance will further develop, and the prosperity of infrastructure chain will continue to rise in the medium term. We suggest paying attention to the opportunities for valuation and continuous repair of infrastructure leading enterprises with historically low valuation and stable performance, It is suggested to pay attention to China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , Jsti Group(300284) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (asset valuation repair of CNOOC real estate), etc. (2) There are bright spots in the demand structure and investment opportunities under the incremental development of new businesses: with the promotion of policies such as double carbon strategy and green and energy-saving buildings, the prosperity of fabricated buildings, energy conservation and carbon reduction and infrastructure segments related to new energy is high, and enterprises with relevant transformation layout are expected to benefit. Last week, the 14th five year plan for building energy efficiency and green building development was issued, which proposed to promote building photovoltaic, prefabricated construction and decoration. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , China Railway Prefabricated Construction Co.Ltd(300374) ; Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , etc. of new energy business transformation and incremental development; Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) and others benefiting from the large volume of building photovoltaic market, and Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) and other leasing service providers of green building materials (aluminum formwork). (3) Direction of state-owned enterprise reform: 2022 is the end of the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform. It is expected that while the reform of state-owned enterprises is advancing steadily, the previous reform dividends in corporate governance structure, strengthening incentives, mixed reform, improving efficiency and stimulating vitality are expected to enter the release period. It is suggested to pay attention to the directions of performance improvement with cost reduction and efficiency increase, new business transformation layout and asset reorganization, and Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) etc.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the real estate credit risk was out of control, the policy concentration exceeded expectations, and the progress of state-owned enterprise reform was lower than expected.
