Shenhua’s 100% dividend was much higher than expected, and the coal value investment was at the right time
The price of thermal coal is relatively stable as a whole this week, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang fluctuates within 1600 yuan. The demand is still strong this week. The cooling of rain in the Middle East makes the daily consumption of the power plant fall slower than expected. The origin is mainly to ensure the supply of long-term cooperation, and the spot supply is relatively tight. The fundamental performance is that the demand is not weak and the supply is tight, which provides support for the high spot coal price. In terms of demand in the later stage, with the temperature warming up after April, the industrial power will gradually relay the civil power load. In the short term, considering the impact of the epidemic on the downstream operating rate, the daily consumption of the power plant may fall rapidly. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the recovery progress of the epidemic, and entering the power plant maintenance season may also bring some pressure on the demand; In terms of supply, it may still focus on stable supply, but at the same time, the transportation capacity is also affected by the epidemic, and the supply may be stable and tight. We judge that the decline in demand in the short term may bring some relief to the tight supply situation, and the coal price may fall reasonably. However, there is no strong downward pressure, and it is still expected to remain high. There may be no expectation of substantial easing in the fundamentals of the whole year. From January to February 2022, the power consumption of the whole society increased by 5.8% year-on-year. Under the background of sustained economic growth, the basic energy demand is still there. The steady growth policy drives the demand for infrastructure construction, and the demand side performance is relatively optimistic; In terms of supply, the national development and Reform Commission has increasingly improved its supply guarantee measures. At the same time, it has made efforts to ensure the performance of the long-term agreement. There is still policy guarantee for supply. It is expected that the supply and demand will be strong in the whole year. The coal price may run at a high level. In terms of policy, the price control policy of thermal coal focuses on the long-term association rather than the spot. The Coal Association issued a document to promote the implementation of the special verification signed by the long-term association of the national development and Reform Commission, and the spot coal source may be further in short supply. With the increasing demand for industrial coal and the impact of the international energy situation, the spot price can still have greater flexibility. Coking coal prices are not affected by policies. Tight supply and “steady growth” stimulate demand, and the upward certainty of coking coal prices is high. China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) released the annual report this week. Under the background of high performance, the 100% dividend rate was much higher than expected, and the dividend rate was as high as 9.3%. Verified the trend that high profits of head coal enterprises support high dividends. We believe that the current coal sector still has high allocation value and is optimistic about the market of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the price of power coal is stable this week, and the daily consumption demand of power plants has not significantly weakened
This week (March 21-march 25, 2022), the price of thermal coal is relatively stable on the whole, and the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang is fluctuating within 1600 yuan. Fundamentals of this week: the demand performance is still strong. At present, although the demand is in the seasonal weakening stage, affected by the cooling of rainwater in the Middle East, the daily consumption of the power plant is falling slower than expected and still on the high side. At present, the available days of the power plant are relatively stable, and the demand for replenishment of storage slows down slightly; In terms of supply, the main producing areas maintain stable supply. Due to the implementation verification of the long-term association carried out by the national development and Reform Commission, the producing areas mostly focus on ensuring the supply of the long-term association, and the spot supply is relatively tight. At the same time, environmental protection inspection and the impact of the epidemic on transportation capacity still have a certain disturbance to the supply. In terms of ports, Qin port’s inventory remains at a relatively low level of 5 million tons. On the whole, the fundamentals show that the demand is not weak and the supply is tight, which provides support for the high spot coal price.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke remained stable this week, and the downstream demand was disturbed by the epidemic
Coke: coke price remained stable this week. This week, affected by the epidemic in China, the operating rate of steel mills fell somewhat, but the decline was limited. The epidemic mainly affected the cross regional mobilization of steel mills’ raw materials, resulting in the accumulation of warehouses in the upstream coke enterprises, the passive reduction of downstream steel mills due to the obstruction of replenishment, and the production in some regions was limited due to the shortage of raw materials. Coking coal: coking coal production and land price fell slightly this week. Under the influence of the epidemic, the blocked shipment led to the accumulation of upstream coal mine inventory and the passive reduction of downstream coke steel enterprises’ demand. At the supply side, affected by the environmental protection inspection in Inner Mongolia, the overall supply of coking coal is tight. Overall, we believe that the current demand fundamentals of dual focus have not been substantially damaged, but have been suppressed in the short term. In the later stage, if the impact of the epidemic is improved, the demand for replenishment will be released again. At the same time, the infrastructure development force of steady growth policy will drive the demand of the whole year, and the price of dual focus is expected to remain strong.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
