Core view: Recently, automobile companies have gradually released their annual report for 2021. According to the split Q4 performance, the gross profit margin has generally declined month on month due to the rise in commodity prices. Since March, geopolitical conflicts have exacerbated bulk price increases and supply chain tension, once again suppressing sector sentiment. We believe that the stock price may have basically reflected the “most difficult” fundamentals, and the trend of accelerated penetration of intelligent electric, strong rise of independent brands and reshaping the pattern of auto parts in the next 5-10 years is becoming more and more clear. It is suggested to lay out the auto sector on bargain hunting.
The Berlin plant was officially put into operation, and Tesla‘s global delivery is expected to continue in large quantities. On March 22, Tesla Berlin factory was officially put into operation, and the first batch of 30 modelys were delivered to local users; It is expected that the Austin plant in Texas will also be in mass production in April. Tesla‘s production capacity will be released faster. We expect its global production capacity to reach 2 million by the end of 2022: ① the Fremont plant in California has a production capacity of 100000 models / X and 500000 models 3 / Y; ② The Model3 / y production capacity of Shanghai factory exceeds 1 million; ③ Berlin plant, with a production capacity of 200000 modely; ④ The model y plant in Texas has a capacity of 200000 vehicles. Considering the rhythm of climbing production, Tesla is expected to deliver 1.6 million vehicles worldwide in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 70.9%; By the end of 2023, the production capacity reached 2.9 million vehicles, and 2.3 million vehicles were delivered throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 43.8%.
Market review: new energy and intelligent sectors led the decline this week. CITIC auto index fell 1.48%, outperforming the market by 0.66 percentage points, ranking 8th among 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars fell 1.73%, commercial vehicles rose 0.61%, auto parts fell 2.11%, auto sales and services rose 2.99%, motorcycles and others fell 0.87%. In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index fell 2.95% and the intelligent vehicle index fell 3.74%.
Data tracking: 45000 vehicles were approved for sale in the first three Sundays of March, a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% and a month on month increase of 13%. Among them, 40000 vehicles were approved on the first Sunday, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% and a month on month increase of 44% over the same period in February; The average number of vehicles on the second Sunday was 51000, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% and a month on month increase of 85%; On the third Sunday, the average number of vehicles was 42000, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% and a month on month decrease of 31%. From the retail perspective, the average sales volume in the first three Sundays of March was 39000, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8% and a month on month increase of 18% over the same period in February. Among them, 37000 vehicles were retailed on the first Sunday, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8% and a month on month increase of 42%; The average number of vehicles on the second Sunday was 46000, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 75% month on month; On the third Sunday, the average number of vehicles was 35000, a year-on-year decrease of 29.3% and a month on month decrease of 25.0%. Since March, the epidemic situation has rebounded all over the country, and the prevention and control measures in some areas with high automobile production and sales have had a certain negative impact on automobile sales.
Investment suggestions: 1) intelligent driving industry chain, focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Nextel and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) . 2) , , , ; ② Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Platform company, focusing on Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) . 3) The trend of independent rise is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
