Liquidity: Gold ETF positions rose significantly for three consecutive months. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in February 2022 was 51.44, a month on month increase of + 6.57%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 4.5 percentage points in February 2022, with a chain comparison of + 7.2 percentage points; (3) SPDR gold ETF position this week was 109318 tons, up + 0.99% from last week.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the operating rate of petroleum asphalt is at the lowest level in the same period of 6 years. (1) The price of coke + 0.00%, the price of coke + 0.00%, the price of iron ore + 0.00%, the price of coke + 0.00%, and the price of iron ore + 0.00% this week; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were + 3.55pct, + 3.44pct, + 2.10pct and + 4.51pct respectively.
Real estate completion chain: the profits of titanium dioxide and flat glass are at a low level in the same period of nearly three years. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 3.50% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 1519 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 40.44%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 253 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 30.30%.
Industrial chain: the operating rate of semi steel tire is at a high level in the same period of 6 years. (1) Price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the prices of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 0.18%, + 0.78%, + 2.09% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 11.99%, – 5.48%, + 8.74%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 72.15%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.95 percentage points; (3) The 4-week rolling value of the average daily sales volume of passenger cars wholesale and retail was 113000, a month on month increase of + 10.53%.
Subdivided varieties: the price of molybdenum concentrate has reached a new high since 2012. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25250 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 4479.7 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 263700 yuan / ton, up + 18.68% from last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 22000 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.80%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 6250 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22990 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.09%, and the estimated profit is 5176.3 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 8.74%; (6) The price of electrolytic copper is 73880 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.78%, and the estimated profit is 7080 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of – 5.48%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 940 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%; (8) The price of molybdenum concentrate was 2680 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 7.20%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread rebounded to 200 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of thread and iron ore was 5.23 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar this Friday is 200 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 610 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 40 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.09; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 0.00% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 30 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States is 80%, which is at the median level in the same period. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 327490 points this week, with a chain comparison of – 0.79%; (2) The utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 80.20% this week, with a month on month ratio of + 0.30 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 2.14%. Coal mining (+ 6.80%) was the best performing sector in the cycle. The quantile of Pb ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) was 29.56% and 89.83% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.49, with the highest value of 0.82 since 2013 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: the expectation of output reduction in the industry will increase in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) ; At present, the leading positions of global gold ETF have risen significantly for three consecutive months. It is recommended to pay attention to the subject Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
