Market review last week (2022.3.212022.3.25): the Shanghai stock index rebounded after falling on the first day of last week, and then remained volatile. On the fourth day, the main index fell generally, and on the fifth day, it still opened low. The Shenzhen index rose last week and fell in shock, falling on both the fourth and fifth days. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19% to close at 321224. The CSI 300 fell 2.14% last week to close at 417457. Last week, one of the sub sectors of social services and tourism retail rose, with the range from high to low: professional services (+ 1.44%), tourism and scenic spots (- 2.86%), education (- 4.47%), hotel catering (- 4.94%) and tourism retail (- 7.71%). Last week, 10 of Shenwan (2021) 31 primary industries rose, and the top five were coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate, comprehensive and non-ferrous metals. Among them, the social service sector fell 2.60%, ranking 23rd among Shenwan’s 31 industries. The social service industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.46pcts. Strictly implement the control decision, and the social service industry is under repeated pressure from the Chinese epidemic; Local short distance travel has supported the market, and the tourism performance has warmed up with confidence; The pressure on service-oriented industries is increasing, and the government implements assistance strategies.
The Ministry of culture, culture and tourism stressed the policy of dynamic clearance, and all social service industries are facing severe tests: on March 21, the Ministry of culture and tourism held a national teleconference on epidemic prevention and control in the cultural and tourism industry, emphasizing that local cultural and tourism administrative departments should strictly carry out epidemic prevention and control in accordance with the deployment requirements. At present, affected by the epidemic situation in China, there are some situations, such as the closure of key scenic spots and the control of carrying capacity, and the decline in the number of flights on popular routes. The epidemic prevention and control in China is still in a strict state, the operation of hotels, tourism, catering and other industries is still under pressure, and it will take time for the market to restore stability and order.
Short distance travel has become a new driving force for 21 years, and tourism revenue continues to recover: according to the 2021 financial report released by Ctrip group, its annual net operating income was 20 billion yuan last year, about 56% in 2019. Compared with 2020, the performance has improved significantly. Compared with 2020, enterprises will continue to make efforts in the local and peripheral tourism markets in 2021, and the trading volume of some products is even higher than that in 2019 before the epidemic. The epidemic has not quenched people’s enthusiasm for tourism. When the door of the country is not opened, tourists turn their attention to China. If the epidemic in China is effectively controlled, it is expected that the tourism demand of Chinese people will maintain a growth momentum in the short-distance, surrounding and near outing market.
The pressure on small, medium-sized and micro enterprises has intensified and they urgently need the help of rescue policies: Recently, 14 departments jointly issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, including inclusive measures and special rescue and support measures for some difficult industries. The service-oriented industry has a large employment capacity and is increasingly affected by the epidemic. A number of small and medium-sized enterprises are scrambling to ask for help and pay attention to the industry. All localities have successively issued relevant policies to help and optimize the market environment of the social service industry to cope with the risk impact.
Investment suggestions:
Serious outbreaks have occurred repeatedly throughout the country, and the community closed management system has been implemented in many places, resulting in another serious blow to all social service industries in the process of recovery; A number of online tourism platforms have successively released annual reports for 2021. The data show that the tourism industry has recovered better year-on-year in 2020, and China’s short-distance tourism has become a new consumption hot; Various industry associations have repeatedly asked for help, and the central and local governments have launched a number of relief schemes to promote catering, tourism, hotels, transportation and other enterprises to tide over the difficulties. Continue to recommend tax-free leading enterprises China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ; Recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Lijiang tourism, Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , and other hotels, scenic spots and comprehensive tourism service targets in the logic of cultural tourism restoration; Recommend Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) to release the benefit target of ice and snow tourism demand and Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) to focus on high-frequency consumption scenes and innovation target of life services.
Risk tips:
Covid-19 virus epidemic situation is repeated, the industry recovery is less than expected, and the implementation and implementation of policies are less than expected.
