Crude oil fluctuates sharply, and is optimistic about the leading companies in the integrated industry. The high outlook of the agrochemical industry is expected to continue. In addition, under the background of domestic substitution, the situation of short supply of semiconductors and new energy materials has not changed.
Industry perspective
Throughout history, the period of high oil price at the same level (the international oil price is higher than 130 US dollars / barrel) occurred only in 2008. WTI and Brent crude oil set a record on July 11, 2008. Then, due to the negative growth of crude oil demand caused by the global financial crisis, the international oil price fell sharply. In 2009, the role of OPEC in reducing production and ensuring prices gradually emerged, the monetary easing of central banks continued to increase, the global economy began to recover, and the oil price fluctuated upward. This paper will try to resume the trend of chemical industry and the price trend of chemical products from 2008 to 2009, and study the trend of chemical products and sectors under the high oil price and the sharp fluctuation of oil price.
In terms of sector trend, in the sharp fluctuation of oil price from 2008 to 2009, in the upward period of oil price in 2008h1 and 2009, basic chemical (Shenwan) outperformed the market index and Petrochemical (Shenwan), while in the downward period of oil price in 2008h2, it outperformed the market index and Petrochemical (Shenwan). In terms of chemical sub industry, in 2008, the chemical industry sector fell almost across the board due to the global financial crisis, and only the potash fertilizer and civil explosive products sector rose, with an increase of 11.55% and 0.47% respectively. In addition, chemical fiber, oil refining and chemical industry and other sub industries were affected by cyclical expectations in the second half of 2008, and the market index stabilized. 11 sub sectors outperformed the market index. In 2009, a total of 25 chemical sub industries performed better than the Shanghai index, and 20 increased by more than 110%. Among them, textile chemicals, viscose, film materials, other chemical fibers and other plastic products led the increase.
From the perspective of product price, the rise was led by the high oil price in the first half of 2008. Chemical products are mostly concentrated in industrial chains such as chemical fertilizer (potassium fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer and nitrogen fertilizer), upstream raw materials (natural gas and coal), petrochemical products (C3, propylene, acrylic acid and ester, C4 and aromatics). In addition to chemical fertilizer, the growth of chemical products in the lower reaches of the partial industrial chain is generally lower than that of upstream raw materials and chemical raw materials. During the fall of oil prices in the second half of 2008, the rise and decline were small, and most chemicals were concentrated in industrial chains such as potassium fertilizer, energy, refrigerant, plastics and titanium dioxide. During the rebound of oil prices in 2009, most chemicals were concentrated in chemical raw materials, rubber and other industrial chains.
At present, the macro environment outside the monetary policy is similar to that in the first half of 2008. The growth rate of the supply side is weakened due to the influence of the general background of the world economy. Among them, the current chemical fertilizer is similar to that in the same period of 2008. Due to geopolitical conflicts and export restrictions of major producing countries, the supply of chemical fertilizer has shrunk sharply and the price has risen sharply. In terms of demand, it is at a normal level compared with the same period in 2008. The difference is that the growth rate in 2008 is in the decline stage, while it is currently in the demand recovery stage in the post epidemic period. In terms of cost, the oil distribution is in a high upward trend, and the driving factor is from the increase in crude oil demand caused by the rapid economic development of emerging economies in 2008 to the supply concern caused by the current sanctions against Russia. Compared with PPI, the cumulative inventory of finished products is in a continuous upward trend, and the current position is slightly behind the same period in 2008.
Investment advice
Affected by geopolitics, we believe that the subsequent fluctuation of crude oil price may increase, and will further affect natural gas, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) and even some mineral products, and the overall impact on the chemical industry chain can not be ignored. The chemical industry chain is long, the raw materials fluctuate violently, the downstream price transmission lags behind, and the supply and demand of different products determine different transmission degrees. Some products and sub industries may face poor transmission and loss of profits. In the selection of sub industries, it focuses on integration and high view.
Investment main line: first, the raw materials fluctuate greatly, and we are optimistic about the leading companies in the integrated industry. Especially in the context of industrial upgrading and concentration improvement under the background of carbon neutrality, leading companies have strong anti risk ability and obvious advantages. Recommended Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) . After the geopolitical factors are eliminated and the oil price has dropped, we are optimistic about the long-term development of China's private petrochemical companies, and recommend Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, etc.
Second, the degree of refinement is high, and new materials are expected to continue the high boom. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the stock price of some new material enterprises has been significantly corrected, but the situation of short supply of semiconductors and new energy materials under the background of domestic substitution has not changed, and the performance of some new material enterprises in 2021 and beyond may exceed expectations. With the gradual launch of new production capacity in 2022, it is expected that the production and sales of semiconductor and new energy materials enterprises will continue to be strong, and the valuation is expected to be repaired. Recommendations: Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi'An(300487) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Zhejiang Wansheng Co.Ltd(603010) , Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , etc.
Third, the global agrochemical industry may continue to boom. It is recommended that Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) , Lianhe Chemical Technology Co.Ltd(002250) ; Pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) etc. In addition, under the "steady growth", infrastructure is expected to continue to develop, and some building structural material enterprises will benefit. Recommendations: Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Zhejiang Huangma Technology Co.Ltd(603181) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) etc., pay attention to Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) etc.
Risk tips
1) the deterioration of the global macroeconomic situation caused by the continuous escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine; 2) Russia's interruption of energy supply to Europe; 3) Russia and Belarus cut off fertilizer exports; 4) EU imposes energy sanctions on Russia; 5) New changes have taken place in the global epidemic situation.
