Core view:
1. The downstream of carbon fiber needs more and scattered, but looking forward to the future, the three segments with fast growth, high proportion and promising are wind power, carbon carbon composite and pressure vessel. Take 2020 as an example, the global demand is 107000 tons, including 31000 tons of wind power, accounting for 29%; Carbon carbon composite material is 5000 tons, accounting for 5%; 8800 tons of pressure vessels, accounting for 8%.
However, the three markets have different requirements for product parameters and performance. Among them, wind power is more sensitive to cost. The mainstream product is t300-25k / 50K (representative word, may also be 24K / 49K). On the one hand, the product technical barriers are not high and the cost requirements are high. On the other hand, due to the high proportion of wind power in carbon fiber, it has almost become a competitive place for all carbon fiber enterprises.
For the wind power market, the carbon fiber production capacity is expanding rapidly, and in the short-term production capacity increment, the precursor is smaller than the carbon filament, and the supply of precursor is in short supply. Therefore, on the demand side, in the whole wind power carbon fiber industry chain, we pay more attention to the investment opportunities of precursor.
2. On the supply side, the competitive elements of precursor - Technology / process and cost: in terms of technology and process, the growth path of overseas big tow leaders and acrylic fiber production experience are more important. European Monte, Turkey Aksa and American zoltec have a certain accumulation of acrylic fiber experience. The production process of acrylic fiber is close to that of large tow precursor, which can shorten the time of technological breakthrough and reduce the difficulty of production.
In terms of cost, the solvent recovery system with existing acrylic fiber capacity can improve the solvent recovery efficiency of precursor and reduce the solvent recovery cost. In addition, the control of raw material consumption, the advantages of single line production capacity and the gap between equipment localization and self production all constitute strong cost barriers.
Demand side
From the perspective of total amount, it is estimated that by 2025, the global demand for carbon fiber will be 227000 tons and cagr16.5 million tons 2%。 In terms of downstream, the proportion of wind power is the highest and the growth rate is the fastest. In 2020, the global demand for wind power carbon fiber will be 31000 tons, which is expected to reach 93000 tons by 2025, accounting for 25% of CAGR. In 2020, the global demand for wind power carbon fiber accounts for 29% (the second Aerospace 15%), and it is expected that the demand for wind power will account for more than 40% (the second Aerospace 12%) by 2025.
Reasons for the high demand for wind power: 1. The trend of large-scale wind turbine is obvious. In the recent bidding, the maximum unit capacity on land is 6MW and the maximum unit capacity on sea is 11mw. The demand for carbon fiber of 5MW fan increases, and the blades of 10MW fan above 90m need to use carbon fiber. 2. Vestas's patent expires in July this year. At present, China's complete machine factories Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , etc. all have carbon fiber blade applications.
In terms of products, wind power is highly price sensitive, so the application of fan blades will reduce the purchase price of carbon fiber as much as possible (through large tow products 24K / 50K) on the premise that the strength meets the requirements (T300). Therefore, we are more optimistic about the corresponding T300 large tow products downstream of wind power.
Supply side
Short term supply: the high demand of wind power for T300 stimulates the expansion of carbon fiber manufacturers. According to our incomplete statistics, China's carbon fiber expansion plan is more than 250000 tons. At present, the growth rate of precursor production capacity is slow, and the only independent precursor supplier with more than 10000 tons in the market is Jilin Carbon valley.
Long term supply: in the second half of 2023, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) , Cathay Pacific Dacheng, Guangdong Jinhui and other manufacturers have successively filled the gap of raw silk production capacity, the degree of integration has improved, and the supply and demand of raw silk tends to be balanced. However, independent raw silk suppliers such as Jilin Carbon Valley can also rely on the carbonization capacity of chemical fiber group. Therefore, we are more optimistic about the pattern of upstream precursor links.
Precursor Technology
Polymerization link: divided into one-step and two-step, one-step has strong stability and slow speed; The two-step process has strong productivity elasticity and fast speed. In consideration of cost, the two-step process with fast reaction speed is often used in the large tow production line; For the consideration of product quality stability, small tow production lines use one-step method.
Spinning link: it is divided into dry spinning, wet spinning and dry spray wet spinning. At present, the application of mainstream manufacturers is concentrated in wet spinning and dry spray wet spinning. Compared with wet spinning, dry jet wet spinning has better surface structure and tensile strength. Therefore, dry jet wet spinning is mainly used for products above T700, while wet spinning is mainly used for T300 / T400 products.
The competitive barrier of large tow precursor is considered from two aspects
Looking back on the development of overseas leaders: Aksa, Turkey, began to produce acrylic fiber in 1971; Monte, Europe, began to produce acrylic fiber in 2017; Droltek (acquired by Toray): acquired Hungarian acrylic fiber company in 1992. The three overseas carbon fiber leaders have acrylic fiber production experience, which can bring two advantages:
First, the production process of acrylic fiber is close to that of large tow precursor, and it is less difficult to transfer from acrylic fiber to precursor.
Second, the solvent recovery system with existing acrylic fiber capacity can improve the solvent recovery efficiency of precursor and reduce the solvent recovery cost.
Considering from the cost side: the main competitive point of large tow products is not in performance, but in cost side. Therefore, cost advantage is the most important competitive factor of large tow capacity. The cost difference mainly comes from three points: 1. Raw material consumption; 2. The scale effect brought by the increase of single line capacity; 3. Manufacturing cost advantage brought by equipment localization and even self production.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to Jilin Carbon Valley:
1. From the product side: the company focuses on T300 / T400 large wire bundle products. At present, more than 70% of the products are 25K, and it is expected to achieve a breakthrough of 50K this year. In addition, we believe that aqsa T700's products are expected to achieve a stable breakthrough in the high-end market in the future.
2. From the cost side, the company has high product concentration and obvious scale effect. Compared with other manufacturers with more brands, the production efficiency is higher. The single line capacity of the company has increased year by year. By increasing the spinneret aperture, the basic spinning speed has been increased. The basic spinning speeds in 18, 19 and 20 years are 75, 85 and 100M / min respectively. In addition, the company makes full use of the waste liquid recovery system of the group's large acrylic fiber system, which is significantly better than other carbon fiber enterprises in solvent recovery efficiency and recovery cost. From the perspective of solvent consumption, Jilin Carbon Valley (DMAC) is only 0.7kg/t, while China fushenying (DMSO) and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) (NaSCN) are 73.49kg/t and 2.99kg/t respectively.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Risk of technological change; The progress of 50K large tow products is less than expected; T700 product R & D progress is less than expected; The calculation is subjective and only for reference
