Key investment points:
The index volatility of the banking sector decreased this week (3.21-3.25), slightly exceeding the index level at the beginning of the week, and the price book value ratio exceeded lf0.5 as of the last trading day of the week 62pb, the valuation level was stable on a weekly basis, and the market heat decreased. The average daily trading volume was 951 billion yuan (14.3% on a weekly basis). This week, the central bank invested 50 billion yuan in a wide range (including 7-day reverse repurchase), and the 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate remained at 2.10%. The overall liquidity was at a good level; On Friday (March 25), it was announced that the weighted value of dr007 was 2.22%, higher than the reverse repo interest rate, tighter liquidity and good conduction of interest rate guidance level.
In the context of anti epidemic, the pressure has increased due to strong support for the real economy. This week, the valuation level of China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) sector did not follow the whole market, went out of the independent market, and maintained a relatively stable trend as a whole, which was in line with the expectations at the beginning of the week. At present, in terms of the external environment, the emotional pressure caused by geopolitics and imported inflation of bulk commodities is still continuing, and the banking sector is under great valuation pressure. With the speeches and tone setting of stabilizing the military heart at the levels of regulators and Jinwen society, we believe that at this stage, the confidence of investors will gradually recover, and the oversold part of stock prices will be rediscovered in time. However, at this stage, the overall development situation of the epidemic is not optimistic. China’s dynamic clearing policy is “tailored” based on China’s sporadic distribution in the early stage and the overseas entry control is not overloaded, so the control cost pressure is small. However, at present, the scale of infection is increasing rapidly and there is no clear inflection point. The intensity of control cannot be relaxed, and the negative impact on the economy will continue to be amplified. Therefore, the impact of the variables of epidemic development on each sub dimension of the economy will become an important observation object.
A number of banks have issued annual reports. The overall performance in 2021 is good and the flexibility is enhanced. This week, five A-share listed banks officially released their annual reports for 2021, among which Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) , China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) and Bank Of Qingdao Co.Ltd(002948) have released performance forecasts in the early stage. The main financial data are the same as the performance forecast. The annual reports disclose more detailed financial data and business development of each bank. On the whole, the above-mentioned banks performed well in 2021, their performance increased significantly, and the adverse level decreased, Asset quality has been further consolidated Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) didn’t release the performance forecast in the early stage. The annual report was directly released this week. The revenue was 269390 billion yuan, yoy + 9.42%, the net profit was 87.581 billion yuan, yoy + 11.89%, the total assets was 11665757 billion yuan, yoy + 9.05%, the net interest margin was 1.56%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.01 percentage points, the core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 10.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.25 percentage points, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.48%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.19 percentage points, and the provision coverage rate was 166.5%, Increased by 22.63 percentage points year-on-year, and the profit stability was enhanced. Looking at the future from the current time point, we believe that under the background of short-term epidemic disturbance, phased profit transfer will slow down the rebound, and the logic of long-term bullishness remains unchanged.
Market performance
The banking sector index fell 0.12% this week, outperforming the market. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.08%, the gem index fell 2.8%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.14%. The recommendations focus on high-quality joint-stock banks ( Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 36 , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) ).
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, tightening monetary policy, increasing risk of non-performing rate, outbreak of major risks and events of default, etc
