Price: steel prices rose this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4980 yuan / ton, up + 0.6% from last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 5180 yuan / ton, up + 1.4% from last week. The price of raw materials is divided this week, and the price of port iron ore this week fluctuates compared with last week; Coke prices were flat compared with last week; The price of scrap steel increased compared with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, we calculate that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 6 yuan / ton, + 33 yuan / ton and – 59 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of electric furnace steel decreased slightly this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five steel plants increased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses decreased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.72 million tons, up 167700 tons week on week, including 78800 tons of construction steel, 88900 tons of sector, and 101500 tons to 3111500 tons of rebar. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week were 2.7346 million tons and 376900 tons respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 83500 tons and + 18000 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of major steel varieties decreased by 149200 tons to 170677 million tons on a week-on-week basis, and the total inventory of steel mills increased by 161400 tons on a week-on-week basis. Among them, the social warehouse of rebar decreased by 24400 tons and the factory warehouse increased by 62000 tons. In terms of apparent consumption, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.0739 million tons, with a decrease of 9900 tons on a weekly basis. The daily average transaction volume of construction steel this week is 150700 tons, with a decrease of 8.2% on a weekly basis.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic has dragged down the downstream steel consumption. With the limited transportation of raw materials, the output of steel mills is expected to decline, and the steel fundamentals will face a pattern of weak supply and demand. The epidemic situation in some parts of the country intensified this week, affecting steel consumption. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 3.0739 million tons, with a decrease of 9900 tons on a weekly basis. On the supply side, the production restriction in the northern heating season is over, and the daily average hot metal output of the blast furnace is restored to around 2.3 million tons. However, with the limited transportation of raw materials in the steel plant, the steel output may turn downward. In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline, and the factory and warehouse picked up due to the impact of the epidemic. On the whole, steel fundamentals will face a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the short-term probability of steel prices will maintain a volatile trend. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Target of Superalloy: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; 4) Target of graphite electrode: Fangda Carbon New Material Co.Ltd(600516) ; 5) Pipe object: Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuated sharply.
