Market review: affected by various factors, the global supply of parts is tight, and the auto sector continues to adjust this week. This week (3.21-3.25), the overall SW automobile sector was – 1.36%, ranking 16 / 31. SW passenger car segment – 1.49%, SW commercial vehicle – 0.78%, SW auto parts – 1.62%, SW auto service + 1.38%, SW motorcycle and others – 0.31%. From the perspective of valuation level, the overall PE of SW auto sector was callback to 34.8 times, which was 58.8% of the past five years, and the PE of SW auto parts sub sector was callback to 34.6 times, which was 40.0% of the past five years.
Industry status: from March 14 to 20, China’s wholesale sales of passenger cars were 296000, down 21% year-on-year, 17% month on week and 31% month on month. China’s retail sales of passenger cars were 245000, down 29% year-on-year, 23% month on month and 25% compared with the same period last month. Steel, aluminum, copper and other raw materials and freight prices are still high.
The epidemic affected the production and marketing of the automobile market, and the top-level supervision optimized the layout. Since March, the epidemic has intensified in China, affecting the production and transportation of raw materials such as steel in many places, causing car enterprises to reduce production. The control of epidemic prevention in many places also affects the automobile terminal consumption. The passenger Federation expects the sales loss caused by the epidemic in March to be about 200000 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2022, the prices of raw materials such as power batteries and bulk commodities have been rising. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the supply of chips needs to be improved, and the operation pressure of car enterprises is great. In order to cope with the rising cost, car enterprises have continued to raise prices, and the prices of some models have increased by more than 10000. Deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission said that to promote the development of new energy vehicle industry, we should pay more attention to the overall improvement of quality and brand.
Investment suggestion: electrification and intellectualization of automobiles are still the general trend of the industry. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to three main lines: electrification & lightweight: the boom of new energy demand is determined, and the penetration rate continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , etc; Intellectualization: intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are accelerated, and the intelligent configuration of new cars is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Improvement of core shortage: traditional automobile enterprises are greatly impacted by core shortage. With the improvement of supply, enterprise operation is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely motor. At the current time point, the business situation of the enterprise in the first quarter is gradually clear. It is suggested to select the target with strong performance certainty in the main line.
Risk tip: the industry’s terminal sales are less than expected, the manufacturer’s R & D or new car release progress is less than expected, the upstream raw material supply is insufficient or the price rise leads to the decline of industry profits, etc.
