Sub industry core week view
“Cobweb model” eventually converges, there is lithium, there is a car. Recently, the market is still worried about the problem of high lithium car injury. We believe that the current problem of high lithium car injury is untenable in the medium term. We tend to use the classic “cobweb model” of economics to explain this problem. As long as the lithium price is not at the balance point of supply and demand, it will cause supply and demand adjustment, and will eventually move out of the inventory. Therefore, there is a car with lithium.
The upstream cost has not been fully transmitted. It is expected that the price rise of electric vehicles will usher in from the end of March to early April. At present, the price of lithium carbonate exceeds 500000 yuan / ton, and the price rises seven times at the bottom. Taking 523 ternary cathode as an example, the price of ternary cathode rises from 150000 yuan / ton at the bottom of last year to 365000 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 140%; The price of electrolyte increased from 40000 yuan / ton at the bottom of last year to 110000 yuan / ton at present, an increase of more than 170%. Taken together, it is estimated that the cost of battery modules has increased by about 40% (from less than 0.8 yuan / wh to 1.15 yuan / WH); From the terminal point of view, the price of battery module has increased by about 20%, or about 0.2 yuan / wh, and the cost of about 0.2 yuan / wh has not been transmitted to the downstream, that is, the battery link needs to increase the price by about 20 +% to conduct smoothly.
How to see the rhythm and guiding significance of sales in the second quarter? New orders in April and sales in May and June. We believe that at present, there are many orders in hand, the head company arranges production for more than 10 weeks, and the second and third line arranges production for 3-8 weeks. The increase of vehicle price is concentrated from the end of March to the first ten days of April. Therefore, the real demand after the price increase will be reflected in May and later. The sales volume in April and before depends on the delivery of the supply side, which can not reflect the acceptance of demand after the price increase. Therefore, new orders are seen in April and sales are seen in May and June.
Q2 sector market can be expected, the whole year “light total weight structure”. On the premise that the price of resource products stabilizes, if the demand is still strong after the downstream price increase, Q2 sector will usher in a reversal. Throughout the year, we believe that it is more important to lighten the total volume and emphasize the structure, and find the points with higher structure than expected or high certainty. (1) Terminal: market segmentation and car enterprise differentiation. Optimistic about Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal and other leading car companies; (2) Midstream: focus on Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain targets; Direction of penetration improvement: intelligent chassis (air suspension, brake by wire, CDC shock absorption, etc.), pet copper foil, silicon carbon, heat management heat pump, integrated casting, HEPA and other fields; The direction of improving localization rate: high-end carbon black, controller, micro motor, audio, tire, IGBT and other fields; Leading enterprises with strong competitiveness through cycle fluctuation: high lithium price will accelerate the reshuffle in the middle and lower reaches. We are optimistic about leading enterprises in battery and material links such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) and so on.
Important industry events this week
1. Performance evaluation of Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) 2021; 2. Comments on the performance of yishitong in 2021. Recommended portfolio of sub industries
See the text on the next page for details.
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
