Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, the CSI 300 index fell 2.14%, the SW nonferrous index rose 2.26%, Comex gold rose 1.88% and silver rose 2.35%. The prices of LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin, the main industrial metals, changed by 7%, – 0.28%, 6.28%, 3.83%, – 1.67% and 0.42% month on month respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in the main metal inventory changed by – 5.19%, 1.38%, 0.49%, 0.13%, 1.93% and 3.3% month on month respectively.
Industrial metals: the rise of global energy prices forms a strong support for prices, and the price of industrial metals may remain stable at a high level. Core view: the intensification of China’s epidemic control affects demand to a certain extent, the rhetoric of the American hawks does not change the high inflation, and the sharp rise in energy prices under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine supports the high price of industrial metals. In terms of copper, high global inflation supports copper prices, Chinese demand has entered the peak season, and copper inflation transactions and basically face good expectations have formed strong support for copper prices. In terms of aluminum, Russia pushed the ruble to pay for natural gas, further pushing up the price of natural gas, and the pressure on European enterprises to reduce production increased. The internal and external price difference is high, the export domestic demand is expected to resonate, the inventory continues to go to 1039000 tons, and the aluminum price is expected to rise. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingthe Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry.
Energy metals: car companies have announced price increases. Lithium prices are transmitted smoothly, and the price may fluctuate at a high level. The periodic supply and demand of cobalt are both weak, dominated by shocks. Core view: the trend of high growth of new energy vehicles continues, and the price rise of vehicle enterprises is coming. Closely track the impact of price rise on the demand side. In terms of cobalt, the low inventory continued to decrease, but the demand was weakly affected by the epidemic, and the cobalt price or shock was dominated by the weakness of both supply and demand. In terms of nickel, the price of nickel is still not completely stable, there are great differences in psychological prices between upstream and downstream, and there are few transactions. Huayue project reached production this week. With the gradual production of nickel products, it is expected that the price of nickel will gradually decline; In terms of lithium, the supply side: the operating rate of mineral material enterprises has gradually recovered. Due to the gradual increase of temperature rise in Qinghai, the supply has increased. On the demand side, the downstream ternary orders are affected by nickel price fluctuations. The high iron lithium inventory of battery factory affects the monthly iron lithium orders, and the demand growth rate is weak. Considering the spirit of the Symposium of the Ministry of industry and information technology on lithium salt enterprises, lithium salt enterprises will ensure China’s demand, and lithium prices may fluctuate at a high level in the future. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the situation in Russia and Ukraine is changeable, and inflation drives gold prices upward. Core view: the Fed has repeatedly issued hawkish speeches, suggesting more radical interest rate hikes, but inflation remains high, adding to the renewed tension in Russia and Ukraine, gold may still have the power to act. Western leaders held three summits on Thursday to announce a new round of sanctions against Russia, and Russia asked unfriendly countries to buy natural gas and pay in rubles. Tit for tat between the two sides exacerbated market tensions. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, supply is released more than expected, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk.
