Key points
The 14th five year plan for modern energy system was released, and China’s energy structure transformation has entered an important window period. In the context of carbon neutrality, the global energy pattern is being reshaped, and China has also entered an important window period of energy structure transformation. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China’s energy structure has been continuously optimized and remarkable results have been achieved in low-carbon transformation. The 14th Five Year Plan period is a key period for China to lay a good foundation for realizing the goal of “double carbon”. On March 22, the national development and Reform Commission issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system. The plan pointed out that the field of traditional energy emphasizes energy security and ensures China’s fossil energy supply. And we should continue to promote the low-carbon transformation of energy and improve the efficiency of the energy system. In the field of new energy, we will vigorously develop wind, water and nuclear power, and strengthen the application of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , geothermal energy, biomass energy and other renewable energy in key industrial fields.
Adhere to the energy security strategy and promote the development of new energy. We believe that crude oil is an important chemical raw material, and its important uses cannot be replaced in the short term, so the chemical demand for crude oil will maintain growth in the short term; The number of fuel vehicles in the world is still large, so the demand for refined oil fuel will remain stable in the short term; China’s dependence on crude oil imports is high, and ensuring energy security has become an important task for China’s crude oil enterprises. Therefore, the strategic position of “king of bulk” (crude oil) is irreplaceable in the medium and short term. In the process of energy transformation, China attaches great importance to energy supply security. The central economic work conference in December 2021 pointed out that the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stable prices. We should further promote the energy revolution and accelerate the construction of an energy power. Due to China’s resource endowment of “rich coal, poor oil and little gas”, coal accounts for more than half of China’s energy structure, and coal combustion and power generation cause serious carbon emission problems. Based on China’s energy situation, we focus on the main lines of energy transformation, such as wind power generation, lithium battery, hydrogen energy and natural gas.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, most sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a decline. This week, the Shanghai stock index fell by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 2.08%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 2.14% and the gem index fell by 2.80%. CITIC basic chemical fell 0.5%, ranking 12th among all sectors. In the past five trading days, most of the sub sectors of the chemical industry showed a downward trend. The top five sub sectors were potassium fertilizer (+ 9.8%), food and feed additives (+ 5.1%), inorganic salts (+ 5.1%), printing and dyeing chemicals (+ 3.2%) and compound fertilizer (+ 3.1%).
Rise and fall of individual stocks: in the past five trading days, the top gainers in the basic chemical sector are: Zhejiang Zhongxin Fluoride Materials Co.Ltd(002915) (+ 44.05%), Star Lake Bioscience Co.Inc.Zhaoqing Guangdong(600866) (+ 32.76%), Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) (+ 30.02%), Jiangsu Yabang Dyestuff Co.Ltd(603188) (+ 20.59%), Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (+ 20.45%). In the past five trading days, the stocks with the largest decline in the basic chemical sector are: Yunnan Energy Investment Co.Ltd(002053) (- 20.81%), North Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(002246) (- 19.45%), Elion Clean Energy Company Limited(600277) (- 17.67%), Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) (- 17.34%), ST Mingke (- 12.42%).
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) Plate: sector sector of new material sector: suggestions and concerns: sector sector sector: sector sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: the following concerns: ① semiconductor materials: the Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi’An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
