Precious metals: under the resonance of inflation, geopolitical conflict and US dollar credit crisis, the long-term allocation value of precious metals is highlighted. ① Nominal interest rate: during the week, Powell and other senior officials of the Federal Reserve released hawkish remarks. In order to curb inflation or raise interest rates by 50bp in May, the yield of 10-year US bonds hit 2.5% at the highest during the week, and the market has strong expectations for the later tightening policy of the United States; ② Inflation expectations: in terms of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine said that it had encountered “major difficulties” in negotiations with Russia. The NATO summit decided to increase aid to Ukraine, and the possibility of increasing sanctions against Russia was not ruled out in the follow-up. In addition, Russia began to put pressure on the European limit and asked European countries to purchase natural gas in rubles, which once again raised concerns about market geopolitical issues, and the prices of natural gas and crude oil rose sharply again within the week. Since the events in Russia and Ukraine in mid and late February, the implied inflation expectation has risen from 2.4% to the highest 2.9%. On the whole, high inflation and US dollar credit overdraft continue to push up the “anti inflation” and “currency anchor” values of gold, which have become the core factors of current gold pricing. The follow-up market will still focus on the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and shrinking the table, while the worries of stagflation cast uncertainty on the global economic situation, and gold mining stocks are expected to remain strong.
Base metals: the epidemic accelerated China’s destocking, the macro mood gradually stabilized, and the industrial metals continued to rise. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, during the week, Powell and other senior officials of the Federal Reserve released hawkish remarks. In order to curb inflation or raise interest rates by 50bp in May, the US dollar index rose and suppressed the rise of metals; ② In terms of supply, the spot processing fee TC of copper concentrate increased from US $67.0/t to US $74.4/t in recent two weeks, showing an accelerated rise Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) announced that the second phase of kamore copper mine was completed and put into operation about 4 months ahead of the original plan. It is expected that the overall annual output of the mine will reach 340000 tons of copper, accelerating the upward trend of TC as a whole, and the reduction of electrolytic copper supply has also accelerated the decline of inventory in recent two weeks; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, the global copper inventory this week was 544900 tons, 68800 tons more than last week, of which China’s social inventory decreased by 46900 tons, the bonded area decreased by 24000 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 11000 tons, mainly in China. This week, the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises continued to weaken slightly month on month. Under the epidemic, the procurement of raw materials and the shipment of finished products were blocked, and enterprises mostly reduced the operating rate to deal with potential business risks. Affected by the supply logistics and the shutdown of Shandong refinery, China’s inventory is still accelerating the decontamination, the spot premium remains high, and the copper price is easy to rise but difficult to fall. (2) Aluminum: ① inventory: 5821013300 tons were removed from the stock exchange on Wednesday, including 37100 tons of LME inventory. From 40300 tons to 1069500 tons, China’s social inventory continued to show seasonal inventory removal; ② Supply: according to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, electrolytic aluminum resumed production of about 150000 tons to 39.258 million tons this week, which is more in line with the market expectation. The overall rapid resumption rhythm will be maintained within the month. It is expected that the production reduction and production to be put into operation will be basically restored by the end of the month, and the corresponding operating capacity will gradually rise to nearly 40 million tons; ③ Demand: affected by the epidemic this week, the control of logistics management is more obvious. Among them, aluminum ingots in main warehouses in Jiangsu, Wuxi and Shandong Province have fallen sharply, the volume of electrolytic aluminum in and out of the warehouse has moved down significantly, at the same time, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods is low, and the market transaction sentiment is relatively low. At present, the core contradiction of realizing aluminum fundamentals focuses on the continuous decontamination of social banks and the postposition of downstream demand affected by the epidemic. After the epidemic subsides, the downstream operating exchange rate rate remains to be observed. In addition, with the super rise of overseas aluminum prices again this week, the price difference of aluminum outside China widened again, and the corresponding core product of aluminum export, sector, strip and foil, boomed again. Suggestions and concerns include the following: the ‘ China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) .
Energy metals: the price rise of cobalt and lithium is slowing down, and the price rise of downstream car enterprises is now concentrated; In the second quarter, cathode material manufacturers may face a new round of raw material lithium salt just need to be purchased. (1) Lithium: during the week, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate was the same as last week, at 517500 yuan / ton. The downstream cost pressure began to appear, and the rise of lithium salt price slowed down. However, the gap between supply and demand cannot be filled in the short term. Superimposed on the expansion of downstream manufacturers in April, the lithium salt market is in short supply, supporting the continuous high price of lithium; (2) Nickel / iron sulfate fell to a high of 60000 yuan / ton this week, down from 60000 yuan / week. The trading of nickel sulfate spot market this week was slightly better than that of last week, but the acceptance of precursor enterprises for high-priced raw materials was low, the overall procurement demand of downstream was weak, the spot liquidity was poor, and the price of nickel sulfate weakened slightly during the week. If the nickel price continues to rise, it may affect the downstream production rhythm; (3) Cobalt: cobalt sulfate rose 0.41% to 123500 yuan / ton this week; The price of MB cobalt rose 0.32% to US $39.00/lb. The cobalt price is high, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weak, and the rise of cobalt price slowed down this week. Under the price pressure of sectorau materials, the downstream new energy automobile factories successively announced price increases this week, and some automobile enterprises have raised prices twice this year. The price pressure of new energy raw materials has been gradually relieved, and the subsequent changes in the consumer side need to be observed. It is suggested to focus on the following: ‘ Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials(Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
