Key investment points
Market review: this week, the pharmaceutical and biological index rose 0.54%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.68 percentage points, and the rise and fall of the industry ranked eighth. Since the beginning of 2022, the pharmaceutical industry has fallen by 12.05%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.45 percentage points, ranking 14th in terms of rise and fall. The valuation level (pe-ttm) of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 28.9 times, with a premium rate of 100% (+ 3.6pp) relative to all a shares, 52% (+ 3.2pp) relative to all A-Shares excluding banks, and 151% (+ 5.7pp) relative to CSI 300. In terms of pharmaceutical sub industry, five sub industry sectors rose this week, and medical R & D outsourcing was the sub industry with the largest increase, up about 5.6%. The pharmaceutical circulation and hospital sub industries ranked the second and third with an increase of about 4% and 2.8% respectively. The sub industry with the largest increase since the beginning of the year is pharmaceutical circulation, up about 14.9%.
Pay attention to the expected correction of the first quarter report, and the performance determines the rebound height. The pharmaceutical sector continued to rebound this week, with CXO, traditional Chinese medicine and other sectors leading the rise. The rise of CXO sector mainly benefited from the continuation of the tariff exemption policy of some export products of the United States, and the expected easing of China US relations led to the rebound of the sector. At present, some enterprises have disclosed the 2021 annual report, and will enter the intensive disclosure stage of annual report and first quarterly report in April. Due to the impact of multi-point epidemic in March, it is expected that the expectations of the first quarterly report need to be revised, and the performance of the first quarterly report determines the height of rebound. Configuration: 1) it is recommended to add large market capitalization leaders with stable performance; 2) Continue to recommend the traditional Chinese medicine sector, independent and controllable supply chain, such as the field of pharmaceutical equipment and consumables, and undervalued and growing small cap stocks; 3) In addition, pay due attention to covid-19 industrial chain theme investment opportunities.
In the era of normalization of medical insurance pressure and post epidemic, we should focus on looking for varieties of “through medical insurance” and “epidemic desensitization”. Medical insurance pressure will become the norm in the future. On the one hand, we believe that leading pharmaceutical enterprises such as Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) etc. are expected to cross the “medical insurance border” through “continuous innovation + internationalization”; On the other hand, medical insurance immunization is still a better choice. For the downstream TOC end, focus on the varieties that do not account for medical insurance, such as self funded biological drugs, traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, medical beauty upstream products, etc; The tob end at the upstream of the industrial chain is relatively immune to policies, such as the CXO section of the Chuang Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain. The equipment section includes pharmaceutical machinery equipment, pharmacy automation equipment, consumables production equipment, etc., and the field of life science reagents and consumables. In the post epidemic era, we think we should focus on the field of “desensitization” of the epidemic, 1) vaccine varieties or vaccine oversold varieties that are not disturbed by covid-19; 2) When peg is less than 1, the undervalued value or low expected variety with upward long-term fundamental trend; 3) The varieties of medical services that have been damaged by the previous epidemic and the recovery of demand in the future.
The steady combination of this week’week’s steady combination: Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) ).
The elastic combination of this week is the elastic combination of the week: the elastic combination of the week of the week: the elastic combination of the week of the week: ‘ Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) ( Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) ).
Risk warning: drug price reduction risk; Risk that the implementation progress of medical reform policy is lower than expected; Risk of R & D failure.
