Covid-19 antigen detection: the price limit hit the bottom and the promotion was accelerated
On March 11, 2022, the covid-19 epidemic prevention and control group of the State Council issued the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial). After the official opening of China’s covid-19 antigen detection market, China’s epidemic prevention related policies have been fine tuned recently, and information related to approval and application has emerged one after another.
We analyze covid-19 antigen detection industry from the following perspectives:
① product positioning: the current global dominant strain Omicron has the characteristics of strong infectivity and short incubation period. Therefore, the ninth edition of diagnosis and treatment plan takes antigen detection as an important supplement to nucleic acid detection; We believe that China’s general policy of epidemic prevention will not change in the short term, and the corresponding antigen detection will be promoted as a supplement to nucleic acid detection.
② price limit: the covid-19 antigen detection reagent adopts the government guided price this time. We estimate that it may aim to strive for the price to reflect the marketization and rationalization level as soon as possible. Therefore, the possibility and range of further price reduction in the future may be limited. The core purpose of the current price limit is to hope that covid-19 antigen detection reagent can be applied on a large scale as soon as possible, so as to fight the epidemic more effectively, focusing on “large-scale” rather than “price limit”.
③ registration approval: after the centralized approval of a batch of antigen detection products, the follow-up application and promotion may become the focus of work. We believe that the speed of follow-up approval may slow down compared with the recent centralized approval, but the quality standard requirements and the intensity of market competition are expected to continue to improve. At present, the approved or the same recently approved manufacturers may benefit first, but for the manufacturers approved later, it will undoubtedly increase the profit difficulty in the Chinese market.
Overall, we believe that although the government price limit of covid-19 antigen detection reagent limits its market space, it may be difficult to reduce the price in the follow-up. At the same time, the relevant policies and the large-scale use of covid-19 antigen detection reagent in various places, especially in areas with serious epidemic situation, mark that the application scenario is accelerating to open. On the whole, we believe that the market still has great potential.
In terms of specific targets, we suggest to pay attention to: Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Asahi biology, Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , etc.
Performance this week: the transaction reached a new high, and covid-19 theme investment is still disturbed
This week, the pharmaceutical sector rose 0.51%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.65 percentage points, ranking eighth in all industries. The proportion of transaction volume is at an all-time high. The turnover of the central pharmaceutical industry has increased from RMB 1.36 billion to RMB 1.62 billion this week, accounting for a higher proportion of the total turnover of the central pharmaceutical industry since 2018, up from RMB 1.61 billion last week. Historically, the proportion of turnover is the highest since 2015. The valuation rebounded slightly and continued to be lower than the historical center. As of March 25, 2022, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 29.3 times, up 0.3pct month on month. The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 154%, up 6.1pct from the previous week, significantly lower than the central level in the past four years (182.3%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, in addition to Chinese patent medicine (down 1.9%) and chemical agents (down 1.4%), other sub industries ushered in general rise this week, among which traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces (up 3.9%) and medical services (up 2.6%) increased significantly.
According to the classification of key pharmaceutical companies in Zheshang, generic drugs, pharmaceutical services and pharmaceutical business performed best, rising 4.1%, 3.8% and 2.8% respectively, and the medical device sector adjusted the most (down 3.7%). In the generic pharmaceutical sector, Zhejiang Jingxin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002020) (+ 22.9%) and Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) (+ 5.9%) increased higher; In medical services, Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) (+ 8.7%), Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) (+ 6.9%) and Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) (+ 6.0%) increased significantly; In the pharmaceutical business, China National Medicines Corporation Ltd(600511) (+ 17.1%) and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co.Ltd(601607) (+ 12.5%) increased significantly. Based on the above performance, we believe that the subject investment related to covid-19 is still an important disturbance factor for the short-term performance of the sector. At the same time, with the disclosure of recent annual report / quarterly forecast and other performance, the short-term performance catalysis is also an important influence on the short-term market performance.
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the “core assets” and “sector concept” so that they can look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative pharmaceutical machinery will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of “grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation”.
Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, recommended Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) , etc.
2) upstream: the upstream: pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and other fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and the upstream: the upstream: the upstream: the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, consumables, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents, and consumables, and so on, and the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, such as the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, and so on, and the recommendations are recommended for senszonzonzonzonpine international, and the Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) etc.
3) innovation: for international equipment and pharmaceutical companies, it is recommended to pay attention to Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medicine, Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: Other: consumer attributes, medical services, innovative supporting industry companies, medical services, and innovative supporting industry companies, recommending companies with consumer attributes, medical services, and innovative supporting industries, recommending companies with Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) etc.
Risk tips
Changes in industrial policies; The price reduction of core products exceeded expectations; R & D progress is less than expected
