Key investment points:
Car prices rose in March to cope with the price rise of the industrial chain, and the demand continued to be good, supporting the downward transmission of costs.
Tesla led the second round of price rise of new energy vehicle enterprises to deal with the possible price increase of Q2 in the industrial chain. After the subsidy refund, the middle and high-end B-class market is expected to gradually pick up. In this process, the sensitivity to price is low, and the short-term price increase will affect the sales from January to February, In the long run, the sales volume is still demand driven, maintaining the annual sales forecast of 5.5-6 million vehicles.
The Ministry of industry and information technology held a symposium to speed up the safety of lithium self supply and Byd Company Limited(002594) Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) strong joint search
Self supply guarantee of lithium carbonate. The symposium held by the Ministry of industry and information technology will accelerate the progress of China’s self supply of resources. The price of lithium has continued to rise sharply since 2020q3 due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Although the symposium held by the Ministry of industry and information technology will guide the price to return to rationality, 70% of China’s lithium ore and lithium carbonate supply comes from Western Australia and South America. Therefore, accelerating China’s resource development is a top priority The power of the country’s leading battery manufacturer in China’s leading battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) \ the Sichuan yelonggou lithium mine and Murong lithium mine held by the company have increased cooperation and development to achieve win-win results for both sides, so as to enjoy the high prosperity of the simultaneous rise of lithium salt volume and price.
Investment suggestion: we expect the lithium resource market to continue to strengthen and the mismatch between supply and demand in this round
The cycle will exceed expectations, and the prices of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate are expected to remain high. When the promotion progress of overseas new supply is less than expected, we should pay more attention to the relevant listed companies with low mining cost and high-quality lithium resources. They can obtain higher gross profit with lower cost in the price rise, so the performance elasticity is relatively large; In addition, China’s listed companies with relevant resources have integrated the production and sales of lithium salt through lithium mining. With the continuous improvement of the new energy vehicle market, the end demand vehicle enterprises seek to extend upward and directly sign supply agreements with lithium salt manufacturers to reduce the cost of the industrial chain. The listed companies with relevant integrated layout are expected to continue to expand their market share by virtue of price advantages. In addition, pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers’ capacity under the high prospect of new energy vehicle industry. The promotion of downstream demand has also driven the strong order demand of midstream battery material manufacturers. We can pay attention to the leading cathode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in cathode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion, as well as the leading diaphragm manufacturers whose supply is still in short supply.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in lithium battery industry is intensified, the recovery of new energy power generation industry is less than expected, the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates sharply, and the policies of new energy industry are less than expected.
