Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: the rising price tide of new energy vehicles continues to ferment, and the adjustment of industry pattern is imminent
Since 2022, almost all new energy vehicle enterprises have successively opened the “price increase mode”. The root cause is that the subsidy decline of 30% has superimposed the soaring price of raw materials of upstream power batteries, which is the key factor leading to the price increase of new energy vehicles.
Under the pressure of cost, more and more automobile enterprises will increase the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries with higher cost performance. Meanwhile, as HEV and PHEV models are less affected by the decline of subsidies and the degree of battery configuration is small, they are expected to gain consumer preference, thus ushering in a significant growth trend. The micro electric vehicle is afraid to lose its price advantage and its performance is under pressure.
On the other hand, new energy vehicle enterprises are also seeking to integrate upstream resources and deepen the upstream and downstream dependence of the industrial chain, so as to improve the anti risk ability of the supply chain.
The new energy vehicle market may be adjusted in the short term, but with the long-term support of the “double carbon” and “double points” policies, the overall trend of maintaining high growth will not change with the expansion of the scale of leading vehicle enterprises and the decline of cost dilution. It is suggested to pay attention to the vehicle manufacturers with complete industrial chain ( Byd Company Limited(002594) etc.), the vehicle manufacturers with high-end products and low price sensitivity (ideal, Weilai, etc.), and the suppliers who master the upstream core resources ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ).
Market review:
As of the closing on March 25, the auto sector was – 1.4%, and the CSI 300 index was – 2.1%. The decline of the auto sector was 0.7 percentage points lower than that of the CSI 300 index. In terms of sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 16th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, with average performance. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been – 20.6%, ranking 27th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Performance of weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: all sectors rose and fell, with other transportation equipment (8.6%) and auto dealers (3.3%) leading the rise, while automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 3.8%) and comprehensive passenger vehicles (- 3.5%) leading the decline.
Up and down performance of sub sectors since the beginning of the year: all sectors have fallen to varying degrees, with comprehensive passenger vehicles (- 27.9%), commercial trucks (- 26.8%), automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 26.7%) and tire hubs (- 24.5%) leading the decline.
Top five gainers and Losers: Sinomach Automobile Co.Ltd(600335) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Shenzhen Soling Industrial Co.Ltd(002766) , Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) , Winbo-Dongjian Automotive Technology Co.Ltd(300978) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Zhongjie (Jiangsu) Technology Co.Ltd(301072) , Zhonglu.Co.Ltd(600818) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) , Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and sales fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
