Silicon wafer supply exceeds demand and prices continue to rise, actively expanding production to meet the long business cycle: according to xinzhixun, at present, the problem of global core shortage has not been effectively alleviated. With the expansion of production by major semiconductor manufacturers, the situation of semiconductor silicon wafer supply exceeding demand is clear. Although the three major semiconductor silicon wafer factories have launched large-scale production expansion plans, the new factories will not be able to mass produce until 2024 at the earliest. Before that, silicon wafers will be in short supply and prices will rise year by year. According to the recent long-term contracts signed between various silicon wafer factories and customers, the price of silicon wafer will rise quarter by quarter and year by year to 2025. The average price increase this year is more than 10%, and the increase is only slightly reduced from 2023 to 2024. The cumulative price increase in this and next two years can reach 20 ~ 25%, and the price will continue to rise by 5 ~ 10% in 2024; The average price of 12 inch silicon wafer contract is expected to exceed US $200, reaching a new high, and the price increase and business growth cycle time have reached a new record.
The supply of automotive chips is still tight, and the expansion of wafer factories is strengthened: according to jimicrogrid, TSMC has obtained about 70% of IDM’s total automotive chip orders. IDM, including Infineon, NXP, Italy France semiconductor, Texas Instruments and Renesas, has outsourced 15% of automotive chip production (mainly automotive MCU) to TSMC and other pure OEM factories. TSMC announced to expand production capacity to meet the growing demand for automotive chips, including the 28nm process production line under construction in Nanjing 12 inch factory; At the end of last year, it reached an agreement with Sony to establish a joint venture factory in Kumamoto, Japan for 28 / 22nm process manufacturing. After that, it announced that it would enhance the production capacity of the joint venture through 12 / 16nm FinFET process technology. The monthly production capacity was also increased from 45000 to 5500012 inch wafers, which is planned to be put into operation in 2024. In addition to TSMC, liandian, world advanced and Lijing have also launched production expansion plans. It is reported that these foundries have received long-term order commitments from customers including automotive IC suppliers.
Adas / autopilot chips are upgraded, and many manufacturers launch high computing power chips: according to zos research, the development of computing power chips for intelligent driving shows the following three trends: first, the continuous accumulation of computing power, and the self-developed core IP is the competitive focus of major SOC manufacturers; Second, cross domain integration and central computing platform chip will lead the evolution of vehicle EEA architecture; Third, SOC manufacturers accelerate the layout of automatic driving AI data training. In January 2022, Mobileye launched eyeq on CES ® Ultra ™ The system integrated chip adopts a 5-nm process, and the computing power of a single chip is 176tops. Although it is not as good as the computing power planning of NVIDIA, Qualcomm and other competitors, its high cost performance and energy efficiency ratio may still be favored by host manufacturers. In addition, foreign chip manufacturers: Tesla launched Dojo supercomputing training platform, NVIDIA launched autopilot simulation platform, and Intel launched the top AI chip pontevcchio. Chinese chip manufacturers: Horizon launched “Eddie” data closed-loop training platform, and Huawei launched “Huawei Octopus” automatic driving open platform.
The new MacBook Pro sells well, and the penetration rate of miniled in the high-end laptop market has increased significantly: the displaysupplychainconsultants report shows that the global sales volume of Q4 high-end notebook monitors reached 4.8 million panels in 2021, with a quarterly increase of 298% and a year-on-year increase of 1717%, of which the proportion of miniled displays has increased significantly to 54%. The significant increase in miniled market share is due to the new MacBook Pro released by apple in October 2021. The MacBook pro2021 has 14.2-inch and 16.2-inch screen sizes, and is equipped with miniled backlight technology. There are about 800011000 miniled chips, forming a 10 Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) contrast while maintaining a light and thin appearance. According to Apple’s fy2022q1 financial report, during the reporting period, the company’s sales of macbook pro and MacBook Air Products soared, and the MAC business achieved a net revenue of US $10.85 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25%. According to DSCC, miniled and OLED will each occupy 50% of the market share in the high-end notebook computer market in 2022.
Shanghai Jita and Huahong Wuxi added a large number of bidding: according to the data of electronic trading platform for bidding and tendering of mechanical and electrical products, this week (202203.21202203.25), Shanghai Jita added 41 bidding equipment and 17 bid winning equipment, Shanghai Huahong added 8 bidding equipment this week, Huahong Wuxi added 562 bid winning equipment this week, and Fujian Jinhua added 2 bidding equipment this week. In terms of domestic equipment, shuoko Zhongkexin won the bid for one Zhongzhong current ion implantation equipment.
Investment recommendations: recommendations for semiconductor devices and materials: recommendations for parts and components of semiconductor devices and materials: recommendations for parts and components of semiconductor devices and materials for semiconductor devices. Investment recommendations: recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices and materials for semiconductor devices. Recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices. Recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices and materials for parts and components of semiconductor devices. Recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices. Recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices. Recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices. Recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices. Recommendations for parts and materials for semiconductor devices and recommendations for parts of semiconductor devices and recommendations for parts of semiconductor devices and recommendations for parts and recommendations for parts and recommendations 605605605 . SiC pays attention to Phenix Optical Company Limited(600071) , Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) , etc; Recommend Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , and pay attention to Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) ; Automotive IC design focuses on Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Shanghai Belling Corp.Ltd(600171) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Chipsea Technologies (Shenzhen) Corp.Ltd(688595) , etc.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Domestic substitution is less than expected; Continuous risk of epidemic impact
