This week’s view: this week, the first batch of centralized land auctions in Hangzhou and Nanjing were listed successively. Hangzhou cancelled the requirements of one-time land acquisition and bidding quality, and Nanjing reduced the proportion of bidding deposit and cancelled the construction of rental housing, so as to ensure a reasonable profit level and improve the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in the auction. From the first batch of local auction cities (Beijing, Fuzhou, Hefei, Xiamen and Qingdao), the local local auction heat is differentiated, and the bidding real estate enterprises only show high enthusiasm for high-quality areas and high-quality plots. The short-term epidemic situation repeats or aggravates the sales pressure, and the investment attitude of real estate enterprises is expected to remain cautious. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of policies, the real estate sector rose 3.8% this week, significantly outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Considering that the pressure on the development of the industry remains unabated, there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the valuation of the sector is expected to continue to repair. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector pays attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and other leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, and moderately pays attention to the elastic second-line targets, such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . At present, the valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low and the cost performance is prominent. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is also expected to bring high-quality property management valuation repair, focusing on such services as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Harbin: it plans to abolish the regional sales restriction policy; 2) Centralized land supply in Hangzhou: the starting price is nearly 80 billion, “the second highest gets” + “fixed quality”.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the turnover of new houses rebounded month on month, and the follow-up will still be under pressure. This week (March 19-march 25), 30000 new houses were sold, up 10.9% month on month; 13000 second-hand houses were sold, down 4.4% month on month. In March, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 48.3% year-on-year, an increase of 18.5pct compared with February. Affected by repeated outbreaks and cautious supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in February 2022, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 1.7pct to 77.1% month on month. 3) Inventories rebounded month on month and tended to decline in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 101.12 million square meters, up 0.1% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) The land transaction and premium rate declined, and the proportion of the first and second tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 18.104 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 9.682 million square meters, down 43.4% and 36.6% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 2.4%, down 3.1pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 4.3%, 37.5% and 58.2% respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.3pct, an increase of 9pct and a decrease of 11.2pct respectively. With the first batch of centralized land auction successively carried out in key cities, the subsequent land supply transaction is expected to improve.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 15.67 billion yuan of domestic real estate bonds were issued this week, an increase of 4.88 billion yuan month on month; Offshore foreign debt issuance; The issuance interest rate of key real estate enterprises is 3.10% – 7.00%, and the comparable issuance interest rate is different from the previous one. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 3.6 billion yuan this week, an increase of 1.29 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 3.84% this week, outperforming CSI 300 (- 2.14%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.54 times, and the Valuation Department has a quantile of 24.88% in recent five years. This week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north are Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from southbound are China overseas development, country garden service and country garden.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
