Key investment points
Industry perspective
The industry has passed the dark, the margin is better, and the value is highlighted in the bottom range; However, due to the serious differentiation of the industrial chain, it is suggested to optimize the subdivided track and select individual stocks; It is suggested to focus on the layout opportunities of lithium batteries with good expected margin.
1) the price rise of multiple models leads to hidden worries about demand and intensifies the short-term shock of the sector. This week, ideal, SAIC and other enterprises announced price increases for many models, and the price rise tide of new energy vehicle enterprises is still continuing. A number of auto companies raised the terminal price, which once again triggered the negative expectations of the market for future demand, and postponed the collective correction of new energy vehicles and lithium batteries. We judge that the price increase may affect short-term orders and sales. Based on the high probability of “rush loading” of China’s subsidy clearing at the end of the year, it has little impact on the overall sales during the year. Maintaining the global sales forecast of 9.5 ~ 10 million in 2022, the demand of the industrial chain will continue to increase, while the performance cashing ability of the leading enterprises is still strong.
We believe that the vehicle price increase will help alleviate or eliminate the negative expectation that the market was worried about the poor price or cost transmission. The lithium power battery enterprises whose performance and valuation were doubly suppressed by the rise of raw material costs will usher in the improvement of marginal expectation. At present, it may be the best time to lay out the power / energy storage lithium battery. The first-line power battery leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) ; Second line power battery enterprises, such as Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc; Energy storage battery enterprises, such as Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) , etc; 3C / tool battery enterprises such as Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , etc. benefit relatively. Investors are strongly recommended to focus on their corresponding opportunities. In terms of certainty, we recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) .
2) performance is the king and valuation is the anchor: in the short term, the sales of electric vehicles are strong from January to February, the production scheduling of 2022q1 industrial chain remains at a high level, and the leading enterprises still grow month on month compared with 2021q4, such as Ganfeng, Tianqi, Xingyuan, dangsheng, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Shanshan, etc. the business performance from January to February is eye-catching, and the high fundamentals have been verified. At the same time, the PE of multi link core enterprises in the industrial chain will be about 25-35 times in 2022, which is at the bottom of history, highlighting the investment value.
3) industrial chain differentiation: the best is the best: profit distribution will be the key point of the industrial chain game in 2022, which is reflected in the game in the secondary market. Unit profit, market share and technological marginal change are the key factors to evaluate enterprises α The core element of growth attribute. In general, we continue to be optimistic about high nickel ternary, diaphragm, power battery and some of them α High quality leading assets.
Subject recommendation
Under the general trend of global “double carbon” strong driving and supply resonance driving the continuous growth of demand, the outlook of the industrial chain will continue to rise. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities in the direction of energy storage and fuel cell for industrial extension.
Suggested layout main line: 1) core assets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , etc. 2) Elastic varieties: Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) etc. 3) Other suggestions are to focus on the leading points of the various sub industry segments: the 30 Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) \ , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , etc. 4) Key recommendations in the field of energy storage: Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) etc. it is recommended to pay attention to Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) . Suggestions for attention in the field of fuel cells: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) -u, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , etc.
Recommended combination this week: lithium battery (Ningde, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Yiwei and other related lithium battery enterprises), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) . This week’s Premiere: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) .
Market resumption
1) industry level: the fuel cell index rose by 1% this week, while the new energy vehicle index, lithium battery index, charging pile index and energy storage index fell by 3%, 2%, 1% and 3% respectively. 2) Company level: reference to the lithium battery index. The company level: reference to the lithium battery index. The first five of this week’s top five is the ‘ Shandong Yabo Technology Co.Ltd(002323) 26 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (- 9%), Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) (- 9%), Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) (- 8%).
Industry dynamics
1) price of industrial chain: the price of lithium carbonate this week is 503000 yuan / ton, the same as last week, and the price of lithium hydroxide is 492000 yuan / ton, up 0.4%; The nickel / cobalt quotation is 35600 US dollars / 569000 yuan per ton, down 4.0% / 0.4%, and the nickel price tends to be rational; In terms of cathode materials, ncm111 / 523 / 622 yuan precursor was quoted at 16.3/16.2164000 yuan / ton on Wednesday, up 3.8% / 3.2% / 3.1% respectively, and ncm622 yuan precursor was quoted at 388000 yuan / ton, up 0.8%; In terms of electrolyte, the quotation of lithium fluorophosphate / electrolyte (lithium iron phosphate) on Saturday was 51.5105000 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week; Diaphragm, 9 μ Wet base film / 14 μ The price of dry base membrane is 1.42/0.95 yuan / m2 respectively, which remains stable; In terms of negative electrode materials, middle-end and high-end natural graphite were quoted at 5.161000 yuan / ton, an increase of 32.5% / 9.9%. 2) Key industry trends: the national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), which provides medium and long-term guidance for the development of hydrogen energy in China; The 8th China electric vehicle hundred people’s forum was held in Beijing. Leaders of relevant national departments, well-known experts in the industry and senior managers of enterprises were invited to attend and deliver speeches.
Company dynamics
1) the price rise tide of new energy vehicles continues, and ideal and Wuling announced the price rise respectively this week; 2) Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Geely Automobile, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) successively released the 2021 annual report.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; The performance of the recommended company is less than expected; Systemic risk.
