Key investment points:
In 2022, the macro policy will be stable and effective, the national economy will be stable, and an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy will be implemented. The central economic work conference stressed the need to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry, and begin to correct the deviation of real estate policies. At the same time, it is noted that the central bank lowered the MLF interest rate on January 17. It is expected that the LPR will decrease with the MLF, which will play a certain role in driving the macro-economy. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development once again clarified the direction of green building. We continue to give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Recently, the “steady growth” signal continues to increase, and the policy side “stimulus + deregulation” is expected to continue to consolidate the confidence of the real estate industry. On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting. The meeting stressed the need to invigorate the economy in the first quarter and maintain the growth of new loans. The meeting called for real estate enterprises to study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model. According to the spirit of the central government, the special bonds in 2022 will be approved in advance, focusing on infrastructure construction. The meeting stressed the growth of new loans, the expectation of steady growth will be further strengthened, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to increase, and the large infrastructure sector is expected to benefit first. At the same time, the housing loan market policy has released positive signals. Shanghai, Nanning and other places have adjusted the interest rate of individual housing loans and the down payment ratio of housing loans, which is expected to stimulate the growth of demand. On March 23, Harbin plans to abolish the regional real estate sales restriction policy, becoming the second city after Zhengzhou to explicitly cancel the purchase and sales restriction policy. The “stimulus + deregulation” of the real estate market may help real estate enterprises improve cash flow, reduce inventory and promote their own enterprise transformation. The eye-catching performance of the real estate market this week may help to support this trend. Recommend China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , focus on China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) .
Recently, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development triggered the “14th five year plan” for building energy conservation and green building development plan, once again clarifying the development direction of green buildings. The plan proposes that by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings in China will be more than 50 million KW, the application area of geothermal energy in buildings will be more than 100 million square meters, and the replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings will reach 8%, The proportion of electricity consumption in building energy consumption exceeds 55%. In terms of the implementation of incentive policies, in order to effectively promote the development of building energy conservation and green buildings, the plan proposes that housing and urban-rural construction departments at all levels should strengthen communication with development and reform, finance, taxation and other departments, strive to implement the support policies in terms of financial capital, price and taxation, and provide support for high-star green buildings, ultra-low energy consumption buildings, zero carbon buildings, energy-saving transformation projects of existing buildings The construction of renewable energy application projects and green agricultural houses shall be given policy support. The plan clearly puts forward specific objectives such as prefabricated buildings and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) installed capacity of buildings, which is expected to further promote the investment progress in corresponding sub fields and improve the penetration rate of main products.. Focus on Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , the leader of prefabricated buildings, Yuanda residential workers, and Hangxiao Steel Structure Co.Ltd(600477) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , which have recently developed more distributed photovoltaic buildings.
On March 16, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a special meeting. The meeting stressed the need to invigorate the economy in the first quarter and maintain the growth of new loans. The meeting called for real estate enterprises to study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model. According to the spirit of the central government, the special bonds in 2022 will be approved in advance, focusing on infrastructure construction. The meeting stressed the growth of new loans, the expectation of steady growth will be further strengthened, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to increase, and the large infrastructure sector is expected to benefit first. At the same time, the spirit of the meeting continued to promote the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) and China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) .
China’s carbon emission market has officially launched online trading, and power has become the first pilot industry Shanghai Environment Group Co.Ltd(601200) energy exchange predicts that industries with high carbon emissions such as steel, nonferrous smelting and building materials will be included in the scope of carbon emission trading in turn in 2022. For iron and steel, building materials and other industries, the low energy consumption and carbon capture technology owned by its leading enterprises will become an important force to promote carbon neutralization in the industry. Recommend Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , focus on Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) .
Risk warning: focus on the company’s performance less than expected; The implementation of policies in the real estate industry is less than expected; The growth rate of special bond issuance and infrastructure investment recovered less than expected; The price of raw materials continues to rise; The epidemic repeated or lasted longer than expected; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
