Core view
The core of vehicle intellectualization is to realize intelligent driving (automatic driving). It is estimated that the penetration rate of L2 and above in the United States / EU / China will reach 46% in 2025, of which the penetration rate of L3 ~ L5 is 10%. The sensing layer of intelligent driving three-level architecture relies on the integration of camera, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensing devices for environmental monitoring. At present, in the technical path of realizing automatic driving, the multi-sensor fusion scheme has higher security and more mainstream than the pure vision scheme.
On board camera:
Demand side: 1) the number and value of cameras carried by a single car are increased. L4 is equipped with 12 cameras, and the value of a single car is 410 US dollars, which is 2.4 times that of L2; 2) The camera is high-definition, VGA is moving towards 1 ~ 3 million pixels, and 8 million high-definition cameras are imported; 3) Centralized architecture drives hardware simplification, reduces cost and improves penetration; 4) The global market scale exceeds 100 billion yuan. We estimate that the global market scale of passenger car on-board camera will increase from US $7.5 billion in 2020 to US $277 in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 29.8%.
Supply side: 1) Chinese enterprises have the right to speak in important industrial chains such as lens and CIS, and reap the dividends of the rapid growth of vehicle lens in the global market; 2) Localization of visual solutions accelerates the rise of domestic suppliers.
Demand side: lidar in ADAS field will release ultra-high growth. According to yole’s prediction, the global lidar market will reach US $1.6 billion in 2019, with ADAS accounting for only 1.5%. The global total scale will reach US $5.7 billion in 2026, with ADAS accounting for 44.7%, and CAGR exceeding 90% from 2019 to 2026. We estimate that the global vehicle lidar market will grow from US $40 million in 2020 to US $88 in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 187.7%.
Supply side: 1) Chinese suppliers have shown a rapid momentum in the global market. In 2021, Suteng juchuang ranked second in the global market, accounting for 10.4%, second only to Valeo; 2) The cost reduction trend is clear, which is conducive to large-scale “boarding”. MEMS and pure solid-state technology have the space for low-cost mass production. At present, most suppliers mainly focus on the cost reduction competition track from US $1000 to US $500.
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Risk tips: 1) ADAS penetration is less than expected; 2) Limited space for cost reduction; 3) The competition pattern deteriorated.
