Banking stocks: industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking industry index rose by – 0.12%, – 4.82% and – 1.63% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 11th, 7th and 4th among the 31 Shenwan industries.
On a weekly basis, the stock prices of Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) rose by 4.70%, 3.39% and 2.67% respectively. On a monthly basis, the stock prices of Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) and Bank Of China Limited(601988) rose by 6.35%, 2.72% and 1.94% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: response of net money supply to the end of the month
The total amount of money put in this week was 190 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 140 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 50 billion yuan, a decrease of 40 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, the currency has realized a net return of 620 billion yuan.
On March 25, dr001 was 2.04%, a slight increase of 0.7bp compared with last Friday. Dr007 was 2.88%, an increase of 70bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 2.06%, down 1bp from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.28%, down 7bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m and 3M interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the issuing interest rate of 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. On March 25, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.49%, 2.51% and 2.61% respectively, with changes of + 6bps, + 1bp and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China US Treasury bonds narrowed
The yield of 1y treasury bonds rose this week, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds was basically the same as last Friday, and the term spread narrowed. On March 25, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.16% and 2.80% respectively, which were + 5bps and basically flat compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.63%, down 5bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term spread narrowed. On March 25, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.67% and 2.48% respectively, with changes of + 38bps and + 34bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.81%, down 4bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: start of interest rate hike cycle
(1) on March 24, the US secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.27%, down 3bps from last Friday. (2) On March 23, the adjusted spread of US corporate bond options was 3.72%, down 9bps from last Friday. (3) On March 25, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.47%, up 25bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
After two weeks of adjustment, the bank index fell slightly this week and gradually stabilized. With the continuous publication of annual reports, the market’s pessimism towards bank stocks has gradually weakened. The most reliable profit model in the A-share market is to track high-quality stocks for a long time and buy and hold them when their valuation is suppressed. After the sharp correction of share price, the expected rate of return of high-quality banks will be significantly improved. Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommendation order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
