The proportion of real estate trust investment continues to decline, and Harbin plans to cancel the three-year sales policy. On March 22, the China Trust Industry Association released the main business data of trust companies at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021: the trust balance of funds invested in real estate was 1.76 trillion yuan, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 22.7%, and the decline showed a gradual expansion trend, with an increase of – 184.9 billion yuan. On March 23, the housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau of Harbin, Heilongjiang Province announced that the notice of the general office of Harbin Municipal People’s Government on Further Strengthening the regulation of the real estate market has completed its phased regulation mission and is to be abolished. We previously judged that the foothold of the current round of administrative policies may be the monetary side (new loans) and local policies (such as the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in Zhengzhou and the re mention of monetized resettlement). At present, the relaxation of the sales restriction policy in Harbin has further verified our judgment. It is expected that more second and third tier cities with sales pressure will follow up in the future. Due to the urban implementation of the policy, the “four restrictions” space of purchase restriction, loan restriction, sales restriction and price restriction will be gradually opened, while the continuous decline of the balance of real estate new investment and the long-term negative new amount also highlight the liquidity problem of enterprise capital side (mainly financing cash flow). It is expected that the follow-up real estate policy will continue to relax and intensify
Market review: the increase is in the front stage, 6.03 percentage points ahead of the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was 3.9%, 6.03 percentage points ahead of the market, ranking third among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 104 stocks rose this week, an increase of 27 over last week and 35 stocks fell. (unless otherwise specified, this week in the report refers to the week from March 19 to March 25).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 2.472 million square meters, an increase of 0.2% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 55.4%. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 610000 square meters, 34.4% month on month and – 38.4% year-on-year; The sample of second tier cities was 1.262 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 3.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 55.0%; The third tier cities in the sample were 599000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 14.8% and a year-on-year ratio of – 65.6%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 917000 square meters, a month on month decrease of 10.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 44.6%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 370000 square meters, 15.8% month on month; The sample of second tier cities is 400000m3, with a month on month ratio of – 30.6%; The sample third tier cities are 148000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 17.2%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 10.831 million m3, with a year-on-year change of – 37.3%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 3.304 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 41.5%; The sample of second tier cities was 6.016 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 32.9%; The third tier cities in the sample were 1421000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 32.9%. Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the issuance of bonds by real estate enterprises continued to recover. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 18 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (March 21-march 27), with a month on month increase; The total issuance scale is 17.410 billion yuan, the total repayment amount is 18.618 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is -1.208 billion yuan. The interest rate of corporate bonds issued by China Resources Street (- 22bp) and comparable bonds issued by China Resources Street (- 60BP) in the same year (- 16bp) decreased compared with that before the same year (- 22bp).
Investment suggestions: local policies continue to relax, and more cities are expected to follow up in the future to maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
