Important trends in the industry this week:
The growth of operators accelerated in 2021, the personal market stabilized and rebounded, and the government enterprise business grew rapidly (c114). The revenue and profit of the three operators ushered in positive growth in 2021. In terms of revenue, China Mobile and China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) both had double-digit year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 11.3% respectively, and China United Network Communications Limited(600050) increased by 7.9%. In terms of specific business, the ARPU value of personal business and the number of users increased, and the income stabilized and rebounded. Government and enterprise business has become the focus of growth, which has an important pull on the overall income growth of operators.
The future investment of operators will focus on digital economy and computing power network (c114)
Mobile expects capex of 185.2 billion yuan and 5g related of 110 billion yuan in 22 years, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. Telecom expects capex93 billion yuan in 22 years, of which 5g investment is 34 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%. China Unicom has not released the specific figures of capital expenditure in 2022, but in view of the co construction and sharing with telecom, the pace of 5g related investment is also expected to be a downward trend. From the perspective of capital expenditure structure, operators will increase investment in digital economy related businesses, and cloud, IDC and computing network will become key investment directions.
Investment view this week:
The US side confirmed the end of the five-year compliance monitoring period for ZTE, and the emotional repression of external factors on the sector is expected to be lifted. In the short term, focus on the subject of high growth & low value & policy benefits (digital economy, East West calculation, etc.) in the first quarter report. Looking forward to the whole year, focus on the high boom track and the low / undervalued value + reversal logic target. Focus on: communication + energy storage / new energy, Internet of things / Internet of vehicles, cloud computing, industrial Internet and other subdivided fields. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to high boom segments with strong performance certainty. It is suggested to pay attention to: optical fiber cable / submarine cable, Gigabit broadband, Internet of things / smart car, military communication, video conference, IDC, operators, etc
I. 5g network:
1. Main equipment supplier: key recommendation: Zte Corporation(000063) ;
2. Optical fiber and optical cable: key recommendations: Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) (the ocean and new energy sectors have full potential, and the business cycle of optical fiber and optical cable starts), Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.Ltd(600487) (dual drive of ocean and optical fiber and optical cable). It is suggested to pay attention to: Yangtze Optical Fibre And Cable Joint Stock Limited Company(601869) (the volume and price of optical fiber and optical cable rise at the same time), Jiangsu Etern Company Limited(600105) (optical communication recovers, and the automobile harness opens the incremental space);
3. Light module & light device: light module & light device: 3 Zuming Bean Products Co.Ltd(003030) 30 \ ;
II. 5g application end (Automotive intelligence, etc.):
1. Internet of things / networking of vehicles: what’s to be: to highlight: what’s to recommend to highlight: Skyworth Digital Co.Ltd(000810) , Cubic Sensor And Instrument Co.Ltd(688665) (mechanical combined coverage); It is suggested to pay attention to: Huagong Tech Company Limited(000988) (on-board sensing capacity), Shenzhen Neoway Technology Co.Ltd(688159) , Beijing Inhand Networks Technology Co.Ltd(688080) , Wenzhou Yihua Connector Co.Ltd(002897) (vehicle connector + photovoltaic), Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.Ltd(688668) , Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Hangzhou Hopechart Iot Technology Co.Ltd(688288) ;
2. Online office / video conference: key recommendations: Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) (UC terminal solution leader, continuous improvement of product matrix), Fujian Star-Net Communication Co.Ltd(002396) (cloud office / cloud desktop, video conference), Montnets Cloud Technology Group Co.Ltd(002123) (rich media SMS leader), Bizconf Telecom Co.Ltd(300578) (video conference software and hardware layout), etc;
3. Operators (undervalued, high dividend): China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China United Network Communications Limited(600050) ;
III. communication + energy:
1. Sea breeze submarine cable: Jiangsu Zhongtian Technology Co.Ltd(600522) (the ocean and new energy sectors have full potential, and the business cycle of optical fiber and cable has started), Hengtong Optic-Electric Co.Ltd(600487) (sea breeze + optical fiber and cable dual drive);
2. IDC: a key recommendation from IDC: a key recommendation from the IDC: to focus on: Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 335 etc;
IV. military communication & Beidou: communication is a serious weakness in the field of national defense informatization, and the penetration rate of ultrashort wave and area width can be improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated Company(002465) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Jushri Technologies Inc(300762) , Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd(300627) ;
V. digital RMB: with the continuous promotion of digital RMB, large-scale application can be expected in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chutian Dragon Co.Ltd(003040) , Eastcompeace Technology Co.Ltd(002017) etc.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic, the progress of 5g industry and commerce are lower than expected, the speed of downstream application recommendation is lower than expected, and the risk of trade war is uncertain.
