This week’s view
Iron and steel industry: the fundamentals of the industry are good, and the short-term epidemic disturbance will not affect the rise of main line steel prices throughout the year. As of March 25, thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe reported 4978 yuan / ton, 5284 yuan / ton, 5258 yuan / ton, 5714 yuan / ton, 5251 yuan / ton and 5410 yuan / ton respectively this week, with a weekly increase of 1.41%, 1.48%, 0.75%, 0.42%, 1.14% and 0.43% respectively.
This week, social inventory continued to decline slightly to 170826 million tons, with a slight decrease of 149800 tons. Gross profit per ton of steel rose. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe was 863 yuan, 1169 yuan, 1043 yuan, 949 yuan, 1136 yuan and 995 yuan respectively, up 214 yuan, 222 yuan, 184 yuan, 169 yuan, 204 yuan and 168 yuan compared with last week.
In terms of the epidemic situation and the production rhythm of finished products in Shandong, the epidemic situation has affected the production and transportation of raw materials in Hebei in the short term. On the demand side, the epidemic scope is expanded, and the downstream demand is suppressed to a certain extent. However, at present, steel prices are supported by the rise of raw material prices, and steel prices are better transmitted downward. From the perspective of the whole year, steady growth is still the main line of economic work throughout the year. With the subsequent epidemic being gradually controlled, the lagging demand for steel is expected to accelerate.
As the main focus of stabilizing the economy, in the field of infrastructure construction, water conservancy and municipal pipe network have been clearly reflected at the policy level. It is expected that with the end of the two sessions and the centralized bid opening and construction in various places, the pipeline demand is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
For high-grade non oriented silicon steel, the government work report said that it would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the demand for non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The supply side release is limited, and the profit of high-end silicon steel is expected to continue to break out this year. Attach importance to enterprises with high grade non oriented silicon steel production capacity. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
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Industrial sector companies: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Nanjing Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600282) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) . Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) . Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) . Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) . Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Nonferrous Industry: continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair market of lithium and rare earth sectors, the short-term spot price surged and fell, and the medium and long-term high is expected to remain stable
In the lithium sector, spodumene quoted us $2810 / ton this week, up 0.72%; Lithium hydroxide quoted 491500 yuan / ton, up 0.41%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate is 503000 yuan / ton, the same as last week. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 992000 yuan / ton, 2.85 million yuan / ton and 13.82 million yuan / ton this week, down – 3.03%, – 3.06% and – 3.15% respectively. Considering the tight spot supply of raw materials in the upstream of new energy and the continuous low inventory of the industrial chain, in the medium and long term, we expect the prices of lithium and rare earth to remain high and stable;
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future. We are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era;
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices rose 1.00% this week to close at 73560 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price rose 1.14% to close at 23090 yuan / ton. Abroad, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to resolve in the short term, and the situation has been repeated; In China, industrial metal inventories have decreased significantly, and the peak demand season is coming; The epidemic situation in Shanghai and Shenzhen has caused the market to have some concerns about the overall macro-economy, but the poor reality may indicate a more proactive steady growth policy in the future.
In terms of aluminum, the United States will cancel tariffs on British aluminum products, and the European Union has signed LNG supply orders with the United States. The global shortage of aluminum and the reconstruction of supply chain are playing out; The Australian Prime Minister banned the export of alumina and aluminum ore, including bauxite, to Russia, which will directly affect Russian Aluminum production. Sanctions against Russia are reshaping the global commodity supply system, and aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate sharply in the short term. This week, China’s social inventory of electrolytic aluminum accumulated to 1039000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons compared with last week. Seasonal destocking is ongoing, and downstream construction is accelerating. The average profit of China’s simulated electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 5812 yuan / ton, and the sustainability of the profit of electrolytic aluminum may exceed the market expectation.
Focus on the subject
\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 92 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Ningbo Yunsheng Co.Ltd(600366) Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) 6 Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) 01 Founder Technology Group Co.Ltd(600601) 899 Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
