Market Review
The auto sector fell 1.36%, the CSI 300 index fell 2.14% in the same period, and the auto industry was 0.78 percentage points ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 16th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan last week, at the midstream level compared with other industries. The new energy vehicle index fell 3.38%. Among the sub sectors, the rise and fall of passenger vehicles / commercial trucks / commercial buses / auto parts / auto services this week were -1.49% / – 1.66% / 1.52% / – 1.62% / 1.38% respectively.
Hot spots this week
The price rise of new energy continued to spread. This week, the prices of new energy vehicle enterprises will rise, and new vehicle enterprises such as Weima, ideal, SAIC GM Wuling and lantu will be added. Weima automobile will raise the price of models on sale by 70 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 yuan from March 28; Ideal car will raise the price of models on sale by 11800 yuan from April 1; SAIC GM Wuling raised the prices of its miniev, nanoev and Baojun kiwiev models from 4 Faw Jiefang Group Co.Ltd(000800) 0 yuan on March 24; Lantu automobile will announce the price increase details of its models on March 31.
The epidemic disturbs the demand in March. Structurally, the penetration rate of new energy is expected to increase again in March. According to the prediction of the passenger Federation, the retail sales of narrow passenger cars are expected to be 1.58 million in March, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%. In March, the epidemic spread in many places. More than 20 prefecture level cities took silent management measures in the whole region or key areas, and nearly 30 prefecture level cities appeared medium risk areas, which had a great impact on automobile sales. It is expected to affect the sales of about 200000 vehicles, and the reduction of the affected sales is in line with the expectation. Structurally, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy in March is expected to increase again.
Weilai released the annual report of 2021 and entered the strong product cycle with the blessing of three new cars in 22 years. 21q4 the total revenue of Weilai automobile is 9.9 billion yuan, yoy + 49.1%, QoQ + 1%, of which the revenue of automobile business is 9.29 billion yuan, yoy + 49.3%, QoQ + 6.7%, slightly higher than the growth rate of delivery, mainly from + 4% to 368000 yuan / vehicle. The gross profit margin of 21q4 automobile business reached 20.9% month on month (MOM) + 2.8pct, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of 75 ° ternary iron lithium battery. 21q4 suffered a loss of 2.1 billion yuan, further expanding compared with Q3, due to the expansion of infrastructure such as replacement power station and overcharge station, the investment in core technologies such as automatic driving, and the fact that Q4 did not sell its new energy points. Looking forward to 2022, based on NT2 0 platform will launch three new cars, among which et7 / et5 orders exceed expectations. Another new car ES7 will be released in the second quarter, positioning medium and large-scale high-end 5-seat SUV, and Q3 will start delivery. The company expects the delivery volume of 22q1 to be about 250 Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) 0 vehicles, and the total revenue will reach 9.631-9.987 billion yuan.
This week’s view: the impact of the epidemic and price rise is relatively short-term, and the upward trend of domestic rise and electric intelligence remains unchanged
Recently, the market has changed from worrying about profitability to worrying more about demand. We believe that the impact of the comprehensive price increase of new energy vehicles is short-term and limited, the demand for cars will not disappear due to the price increase, and the consumption trend of new energy vehicles is irreversible. At the current stage, resilience may precede flexibility. Based on the clue of 22q1 exceeding expectations, it is suggested to select the independent brand supply chain and the leading subdivided field Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , which has achieved significant increment in intelligence, the subject of Tesla supply chain Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , growth and certainty. The medium-term dimension continues to be optimistic about the rise of domestic production and electric intelligence, focusing on four sub areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats, providing better opportunities for callback.
Investment strategy and key recommendations
Under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the sales volume is under pressure, the industry inventory is at a historical low, the replenishment cycle + demand recovery, and the growth rate of passenger car sales in 2022 is expected to be 5-8%. In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine plants, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The accelerated iteration of models in the era of electric intelligence has greatly improved the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The previously solidified zero adjustment relationship is expected to be broken, the domestic parts and components industry chain rises with the trend, and the accelerated promotion of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends, We are optimistic about the rise of domestic products and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four subdivided areas: integrated die casting, intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile (H), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts and components of the ”s Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) pull industry chain), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) (testing), Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) (lightweight & Tesla supply chain), etc., focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc.
Risk tips
Chip supply is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
