Key investment points
Baijiu week tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 1) the electricity supplier platform will soon take place, and marketing reform will take another step: according to the information of Shanghai securities news, the initial work of Moutai’s new electricity supplier has been basically completed after six months, and the official platform is likely to go online at any time. We believe that the new self owned e-commerce platform will bring three benefits: first, the flow entrance will take Feitian as a whole: Maotai previously launched Feitian through a third-party e-commerce. This time, it is expected to recover the flow and leverage the sales of non-standard Maotai and Maotai series liquor through the attraction of Feitian Maotai. Second, cultural publicity position: in the future, cultural publicity will be more accurate and vivid to enhance the long-term brand value of Maotai. Third, consumer control is further enhanced: Maotai’s consumer cultivation is at the forefront of the industry, and the e-commerce platform is expected to make the data richer and more accurate. 2) There is no need to worry too much about the decline in wholesale prices: according to today’s wine price data, Feitian Maotai’s whole box / bulk bottle fell by 250 / 180 yuan to 2700 / 2500 yuan respectively, and the price difference between whole box and bulk bottle further narrowed. After visiting the market, we found that in the short term, the epidemic and e-commerce platforms have mainly undermined the confidence of liquor dealers with inventory, while dealers have low inventory and sufficient profits. In the long run, the current rapid decline in wholesale prices is only the disappearance of short-term extreme demand caused by the epidemic. In fact, the trading volume of consumers is low. Therefore, it is of little significance to explore the bottom of wholesale prices. However, the important relationship between consumers still needs to be maintained. The consumer demand for Maotai will lag rather than disappear. After the epidemic is alleviated, the wholesale price is expected to pick up Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : according to the information of China Securities News, the recommended retail price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) eighth generation puwu (hereinafter referred to as “puwu”) has been raised from 1399 yuan per bottle to 1499 yuan. This week, the general five continued to stop the goods, and some markets strengthened the supervision of the phenomenon of goods collusion. However, affected by the epidemic, the batch price of the general five remained at 965970 yuan around the week. At present, the channel inventory is low. We expect that the rating will benefit from the recovery of demand brought by the mitigation of the epidemic in the future, and we are optimistic about the strengthening of the rating of puwu in the year Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : gaoguojiao 1573’s wholesale price is maintained at 920 yuan around the week, and the inventory is one month. Due to the impact of the epidemic, the wholesale price is still lower than the new cost of dealers. It is expected that the subsequent price will become the core strategy of the whole year.
Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) : the demand margin is better, and the epidemic situation catalyzes the outbreak of demand for rice flour products. From the demand side, according to channel research, the demand for hot pot ingredients and other products was slightly weak in January under multiple factors, and the performance margin improved and better than expected after the festival and the whole February. After entering March, the epidemic situation was repeated, the demand for rice flour products broke out, and the goods were out of stock in many places. Meanwhile, in 21q1, the base was high in January and relatively flat from February to March. We expect that the main business of 22q1 will still have double-digit growth. Mr. frozen products’ prefabricated dishes maintained a rapid growth rate, especially pickled vegetables and fish, which were favored by the market and performed well. From the perspective of price increase, the price increase of the company at the end of last year was basically implemented. In the later stage, the inventory price of some single products decreased slightly with the input of some expenses, but the overall average price increase is still expected to be small single digits. From the cost side, the current price of pork and chicken is relatively low. In particular, the company’s stocking cost of pork has decreased significantly compared with last year, so the pressure on meat cost has been relieved; The cost of fish pulp remains stable; The main pressure still falls on soybean protein and oil. Considering that the price increase can cover part of the cost pressure, we believe that the profitability of the company can still be improved and restored to a certain extent compared with 21q3.
Mengniu Dairy: dairy products remain stable, and the cost investment remains relatively rational. According to the channel research, Mengniu’s normal temperature liquid milk is expected to have double-digit growth from January to February (thereinto, the growth of terensu is faster than the market, and the performance of Chunzhen is poor), which slowed down slightly in March. It is mainly considered that the local spring festival atmosphere is strong from January to February of the 21st year, the gift giving effect is weakened, and the base number is relatively low; The year-on-year improvement in 22 was obvious, and the strong demand for gifts brought about a rapid growth rate. Since March, it is the de inventory stage of traditional input costs (the terminal is required to remove the categories whose production date is in the previous year), so the cost input has increased slightly, but it belongs to normal seasonal changes, and the overall cost input of the industry remains relatively rational.
Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) : sales expenses drag down Q4 performance and expect a large number of new products in 22 years. The company released the annual report of 2021, and the company achieved a revenue of 4.478 billion yuan, an increase of 57.3% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 154 million yuan, an increase of 160.6% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of 122 million yuan, an increase of 173.7% at the same time. Among them, the revenue of single Q4 was 1.334 billion yuan, an increase of 37.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11 million yuan, an increase of 72.7% at the same time; Deduct non net profit loss of 21 million yuan. (1) The main cheese industry maintained rapid growth. In terms of products, cheese, liquid milk and trading products achieved revenue of 3.33 billion yuan, 4.3 billion yuan and 700 million yuan respectively in 21 years, with an increase of 60.8%, 4.0% and 97.0% respectively; Among them, single Q4 increased by + 44.0%, 2.0% and 27.5% respectively. In the cheese business, ready to eat, family and catering series accounted for 70.8%, 6.3% and 72.7% year-on-year respectively in 21 years. The cheese stick business continues to lead the company’s growth. In terms of regions, the north, middle and South districts achieved revenue of RMB 2.03 billion, RMB 1.61 billion and RMB 830 million respectively in 21 years, with an increase of 51.0%, 60.2% and 67.2% respectively. (2) The optimization of product structure improved the gross profit margin, and the investment of sales expenses dragged down Q4 performance. The net interest rate of the company in 21 years was 4.33%, with an increase of 1.73pct. The gross profit margin was 38.21%, with an increase of 2.3pct. The gross profit margin of cheese, liquid milk and trade was + 3.1pct, – 4.2pct and + 1.9pct respectively year-on-year. The gross profit margin of cheese business is mainly due to the continuous volume of products, the increase of scale effect + the proportion of high gross profit cheese sticks (gold, etc.) driving the optimization of product structure. The company’s high-speed development measures are still in the stage of high-speed + PCT, with a year-on-year increase of the company’s business share of 910.87%. Among them, the sales expense rate of 21q4 was 29.35%, which was mainly due to the listing expense investment of normal temperature cheese stick + the advance expense of Spring Festival. The management fee rate was 7.67%, up + 2.74pct year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of equity incentive fees. The rates of Finance and R & D expenses were -0.69% and 0.90% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -1.71 PCT and -0.47 PCT respectively. Excluding the impact of equity incentive fees, the net interest rate of the company in 21 years was 6.2%, an increase of 4.1pct year-on-year.
Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) : growth in 2021 dilemma, 2022 goal shows confidence. The company achieved a revenue of 25.004 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 9.71%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.671 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.18%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 6.430 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.09%. Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 7.010 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.85%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.963 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.02%. (1) In 2021, it will grow in difficulties, the cost will rise, and the gross profit margin will be under pressure.
In 2021, affected by many adverse factors such as repeated covid-19, weak demand and community impact, the company’s annual condiment revenue was 23.597 billion yuan, still with a year-on-year increase of 9.09%. The revenue in 2021q4 accelerated month on month compared with the first three quarters, mainly benefiting from the increase in channel stock driven by price increase; The gross profit margin of condiments decreased by 3.73 PCT year-on-year, mainly due to the rise of costs. In terms of products, in 2021, the revenue of soy sauce increased by 8.78% year-on-year, the sales volume increased by 8.44% year-on-year, the ton price increased by 0.31% year-on-year, the unit cost increased by 8.83% due to the rise of raw materials, and the gross profit margin decreased by 4.47 PCT; Oyster sauce revenue increased by 10.18% year-on-year, sales volume increased by 11.46%, ton price increased by – 1.15% year-on-year, unit cost was flat, and gross profit margin decreased by 0.75 PCT; Seasoning sauce revenue increased by 5.61% year-on-year, sales volume increased by 5.19% year-on-year, ton price increased by 0.40% year-on-year, unit cost increased by 8.81% due to the rise of raw materials, and gross profit margin decreased by 4.68 PCT; The revenue of other condiments increased by 13.37%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 3.39 PCT. Throughout the year, the company’s dealers increased by 379 to 7430. (2) The expense rate is well controlled to ease the pressure on net interest rate. In 2021, the company’s sales, management, R & D and financial expense rates were -0.56, -0.01, -0.03 and -0.62 PCT respectively to 5.43%, 1.58%, 3.09% and – 2.34% year-on-year. The decrease of sales expense rate is mainly due to the decrease of labor cost and the good control of advertising expenses; The decrease of financial expense rate is mainly due to the increase of interest income. Although the rise in costs led to a year-on-year decrease in the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin of 3.51 PCT to 38.66% in 2021, the decrease in expense rate eased the pressure on net profit margin, and the annual net profit margin decreased by only 1.44 PCT to 26.68% year-on-year. (3) In 2022, we will strive for progress while maintaining stability, demonstrating the leading enterprise’s ability to resist risks. According to the annual report, the company’s planned revenue target in 2022 is 28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the profit target is 7.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. On the one hand, it is rare for the company to still strive to achieve a steady growth of 12% under the background of repeated uncertainty of the epidemic in 2022; On the other hand, in the environment of sharp rise in the cost of raw materials and packaging materials in 2022, the company plans to keep the annual net interest rate flat in 2021, reflecting the ability and confidence of the leader to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
China Resources beer: the high-end trend remains unchanged, and the short-term cost is under pressure. The company achieved a turnover of 33.387 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; EBIT excluding special projects was 4.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company excluding special projects was 3.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%. Among them, 2021h2 achieved a turnover of 13.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.0%; EBIT excluding special projects was 249 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 66.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company excluding special items was 424 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. (1) Repeated epidemics put pressure on sales in the second half of the year, and the high-end trend remains unchanged. The beer sales volume of 2021h2 company was 4.719 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, which was mainly affected by the repeated epidemic. In the second half of the year, the revenue per ton of wine increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 2914 yuan / kiloliter, maintaining a good upward trend, mainly due to: first, the product structure continued to upgrade, and the sales volume of second highest and above products in the second half of the year was 866000 kiloliters, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, leading the overall growth rate by 15.4 PCT; Second, the company gradually adjusted the prices of some products in the second half of the year. In 2021, the company’s second highest and above products such as super brave, Heineken, snowflake Chunsheng and Mars green achieved double-digit sales growth. In 2022, the company will continue to promote high-end development, and plans to launch snowflake whole wheat pure raw, Heineken 0.0 alcohol free beer, etc. (2) Rising costs affect the gross profit margin, and high-end investment continues to increase. The cost per ton of wine of 2021h2 company was 1904 yuan / kiloliter, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, mainly due to: first, the rise in the cost of raw materials and packaging; Second, the decline in sales led to a decline in fixed cost dilution. Affected by the cost drag, the gross profit margin of 2021h2 company decreased by 1.3 PCT to 34.7% year-on-year. The company closed 5 to 65 factories throughout the year, increased the output utilization rate from 59.2% to 60.8%, and reduced the number of employees by 2000 to 25000. The sales expense ratio of 2021h2 company increased by 2.3 PCT to 25.1% year on year, and continued to increase the investment in high-end products; The management expense ratio decreased by 4.1 PCT to 14.4% year-on-year, mainly due to the impairment loss of fixed assets, the reduction of employee placement expenses and the improvement of management efficiency caused by the closure of the factory. The EBIT of 2021h2 company excluding special projects increased by – 66.9% year-on-year, and the ebitmargin decreased by 3.5 PCT year-on-year; Excluding special items, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 17.1% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 0.5 PCT year-on-year
Bestore Co.Ltd(603719) : revenue continues to accelerate and performance is under pressure in the short term. The company released the annual report of 2021, and the revenue met the expectation, and the performance was slightly lower than the expectation. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 9.324 billion yuan, yoy + 18.11%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 282 million yuan, yoy-18.06%. In terms of channels, the company’s revenue from all channels showed an increasing trend in 21 years, and the group purchase business and online revenue increased more. By the end of 2021, the company had 2974 offline stores and 619 new stores, including 185 Direct stores and 434 franchise stores. In 2021, the company can reach 120 million members through all channels, and the member sales account for about 61.16% of the company’s total sales. The net interest rate in the fourth quarter was – 1.22%, and the net interest rate of the company in 2021 was 3.03%, with a decrease of 1.33pct. We expect that the main reasons are as follows: (1) the company further expands the market share of traditional platform e-commerce and increases the promotion during double 11 and double 12; (2) The gross profit margin of annual gift boxes with an increased proportion in the product structure is low; (3) The cost of imported raw materials (beef, nuts, etc.) has increased; (4) The impact of the epidemic and the characteristics of gift boxes have raised the transportation rate; (5) The proportion of online business has increased, and the social e-commerce business has expanded rapidly.
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) : the recovery of demand drives the income to be better and waits for the turning point of cost. The company released its annual report for 2021, and its performance met market expectations. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 226225 billion yuan, yoy + 16.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.132 billion yuan, yoy-31.1%. The company’s single quarter revenue of 21q1-q4 was + 28.0% / + 10.8% / + 12.2% / + 15.6% year-on-year respectively. The revenue growth was relatively stable. Since 21h2, the company’s single quarter revenue has shown a gradual acceleration trend. We believe that the main reasons are: (1) the epidemic situation in China has been effectively controlled, the recovery of China’s catering market and the gradual recovery of demand; (2) Price increase: the company adjusted the prices of different oils at the end of 20 and from March to April of 21, with an overall price increase of about 10% – 15%. In 2021, the company’s soybean crushing scale decreased significantly, and the actual oilseed crushing capacity decreased by 29.58% in the whole year. We expect that the soybean crushing profit in 2021 will be negative for a long time. two hundred and two
