Key investment points
Key events of this week: 1) Zhongfu Shenying completed its online offering, with an offering price of 29.33 yuan / share and an estimated market value of 26.4 billion: the company determined this week that the IPO offering price was 29.33 yuan / share (corresponding to 95 times of PE in 21 years), and the number of public offerings was 100 million shares (the total share capital after issuance was 900 million). Strategic placement accounted for 27.3% of the total issuance, including 10% for senior executives and core technicians, 8.7% for the company’s strategic cooperative enterprises (SAIC, Longji green energy, Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Jiangsu Tianniao, Zhejiang Financial Holding and Liangong investment), 5.6% for national large-scale funds (China Insurance Fund, Shenzhen Venture Capital, state-owned enterprise mixed reform fund) and 3% for sponsors. 2) Hydrogen energy has entered the strategic development sequence, which is expected to promote the development of carbon fiber for hydrogen storage bottles: Recently, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), which plans to have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025, and deploy and build a number of hydrogenation stations; Hydrogen production from renewable energy has reached 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, which has become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption. 3) Mandatory norms will soon be implemented, and the promotion of green buildings is expected to speed up: the national mandatory engineering construction code general code for building energy conservation and renewable energy utilization will be officially implemented on April 1. Combined with the recent “14th five year plan” for building energy conservation and green building development plan of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, the development of photovoltaic buildings (BIPV / bapv), prefabricated buildings, green energy-saving transformation, green building materials and other subdivided fields is expected to speed up. 4) The annual reports (express) have been released successively, and the performance of cement enterprises has ups and downs: Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) (express) achieved a revenue of 167.95/169.98/14.51 billion in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of – 4.7% / + 4.8% / + 15.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33.27/12.53/1.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 5.4% / – 3.5% / + 7.6%. During the reporting period, affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the sales volume of enterprises fell, but the high price promoted the growth of income. The Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) year-on-year decline was caused by the sharp contraction of trade volume; The sharp rise in coal price at the profit side affects the performance of enterprises. 5) The main business of Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) gypsum board leader is strong: in Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) 21 years, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company reached 21.086/3.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25.2% / + 22.7%. The strong pricing power of the company was highlighted under the good completion demand environment. The sales volume and unit price of gypsum board were + 18.0% / + 6.7% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was + 1.3pct year-on-year. 6) The performance of Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) photovoltaic glass leader continued to increase rapidly: Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) 21 years achieved revenue and net profit attributable to parent company of 8.71/2.12 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 39.2% / + 30.2%. The company’s photovoltaic glass production and sales volume drove the high increase of revenue, and the cost advantage ensured the profitability.
This week’s view: the listing of Zhongfu Shenying, a carbon fiber leader, is imminent. It is suggested to pay attention to the high prosperity target of relevant industrial chains; Green building norms will be enforced and relevant development opportunities will be paid attention to. At the current time, we suggest paying attention to several main lines of investment in building materials & new materials. First, the prosperity and performance fulfillment are selected from carbon fiber, quartz sand and glass fiber industries; Second, the marginal improvement of real estate policy, focusing on the layout of brand building materials; Third, gypsum board and cement are preferred for undervalued defense: the common feature is good cash flow and competition pattern; Fourth, at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass industry cycle, under the support of cost, the downward risk of the industry is limited, and the selection of leading enterprises with high certainty and competitive cost. 1) In the field of new materials, the demand for new energy fields such as wind, light and hydrogen downstream of carbon fiber breaks out; Domestic leaders have finished catching up. In the future, capacity expansion and cost reduction will lead to surpassing in the civil field. High purity quartz sand / electronic cover glass ushered in the industrial opportunity of high demand increase + domestic alternative resonance, and UTG welcomed the outbreak of demand.
2) the glass fiber cycle is weakened, the roving boom is expected to continue (wind power, automobile, etc. bring strong support to the demand), the price of electronic cloth has fallen to the bottom range, and the current safety margin is high. 3) Brand building materials enter the strategic allocation time point. In terms of real estate, policy marginal relaxation + increased demand for affordable housing with non real estate developers as the main body, and the demand of the real estate chain is expected to gradually pick up (the end of real estate demand is expected to correspond to 2022q1). We believe that the expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials (refer to the resumption of 14 / 18, and this round corresponds to 2021q4). The double repair of the performance and valuation of brand building materials in 22 years is worth looking forward to. The leaders of each subdivision track have long deduced the main logic of improving the concentration. The frequent repurchase, incentive and increase of industrial funds highlight the confidence of enterprises, and the enterprises with excellent endowments such as channel, brand, capital and management are highly uncertain. 4) In the short term, when the cement industry is expected to grow steadily and heat up, the excess return of the sector is prominent. In the 22 years, the industry has high prosperity toughness (focusing on the enhancement of supply side coordination), and in the medium and long term, the industry is expected to be integrated + extended. 5) From the perspective of water reducing agent, capital construction pull + gross profit margin rise + functional materials open up growth space. 6) The price of float glass has dropped slightly. In the short term, it is mainly to digest social inventory. In the follow-up, with the continuation of demand toughness, the price is still expected to maintain a good level; There is still price elasticity at the bottom of the photovoltaic glass cycle. We are optimistic about the adverse expansion and cost competitiveness of leading enterprises, and focus on the profit elasticity and long-term growth brought by the expansion of traditional glass into the photovoltaic glass field.
New materials: 1) carbon fiber boom continues: at the end of this week, the average price of carbon fiber market was 186000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 3.1), the average price of large tow was 145000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 1.5), and the average price of small tow was 225000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year + 4.5); At the weekend, the inventory of carbon fiber factory was 13 tons (flat month on month, year-on-year – 1). The raw material acrylonitrile market declined slightly, and the price of precursor operated stably. We believe that the investment logic of the civil carbon fiber industry lies not only in the high demand growth (wind, light, hydrogen, etc.), but also in the “favorable climate, favorable location and harmonious people”. After seizing the opportunity to catch up, we will further expand the scale and cost advantage and realize the historical opportunity of “domestic substitution” and transcendence. Under the barriers of high technology, technology and capital, those who win the “raw silk” win the world. In the medium and long term, with reference to glass fiber, the industry penetration can be improved or rely on “price” for “demand”. We suggest paying attention to Zhongfu Shenying (the leader of carbon fiber industrialization, who has crossed the “0-1” stage and entered the “1-N” high-speed growth stage; with obvious competitive advantage, the core technical staff team has established a management team to maintain technical advantages in polymerization / spinning / pre oxidation carbonization / industrialization, with the capacity scale ranking first in China at the end of 21, the unit cost leading the industry and the product structure continuously optimized), At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Jilin Carbon Valley, Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Hengshen Co., Ltd., the leading raw silk enterprises; Carbon fiber equipment manufacturer Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) ; Downstream composite manufacturers Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Hongfa new materials, etc.
2) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, and the supply pattern of “two overseas + one large in China” has led to new controllable growth in the industry, and the supply and demand is expected to maintain a tight balance; The demand for semiconductor and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share. Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) . 3) Electronic cover glass: Chinese enterprises have achieved a technological breakthrough and passed the downstream certification. Under the condition of improving the penetration rate of domestic mobile phones and ensuring the safety of the supply chain, domestic substitution is accelerated. It is recommended to pay attention to CSG a, which has achieved the iterative breakthrough of electronic cover technology and completed the verification of downstream mobile phone manufacturers. 4) UTG: the penetration acceleration of folding screen mobile phones + alternative CPI trend is obvious, and the demand welcomes the outbreak; Take the lead in realizing technological breakthrough and benefiting mass production enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Glass fiber: the industry cycle is weakened and the boom is expected to continue. This week, the average price of 2400tex winding direct yarn was 6100 yuan / ton (the same month on month, year-on-year – 17); The average price of electronic yarn G75 is 10000 yuan / ton (flat month on month, year-on-year – 4900); The mainstream quotation of electronic cloth is 3.7 yuan / meter (flat month on month). We expect that the new capacity of the industry will be limited in 22 years. Roving / electronic yarn will be about 54.5101000 tons respectively, and the production line will be put into operation more scattered. We expect the marginal new capacity of 22q1-22q4 to be 1.7/3.8/4.413000 tons / quarter respectively, with a relatively mild impact. We expect that the global roving supply and demand will be in tight balance in 22 years, and the price boom is expected to continue under the low inventory level. The energy cost of glass fiber accounts for about 20%, and the energy consumption is still high. Under the dual control of energy consumption, it is more difficult to increase the new capacity of the industry, and the uncertainty of landing rhythm increases. We believe that the new production capacity will still be dominated by leading enterprises, and the industry pattern is expected to continue to be optimized. The leading enterprises have core competitiveness such as cost and technology, and the continuous upgrading of product structure will hedge the periodicity to a certain extent. The competitiveness of the leading enterprises in the glass fiber industry is significantly enhanced both from the perspective of increasing market share and continuous decline of cost. We expect that the profitability of the bottom leading enterprises in the next round is expected to increase significantly compared with history. We continue to focus on recommending glass fiber leading enterprises China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Brand building materials: under the pressure of the industry, the most difficult time for brand building materials has passed, and the leader welcomes light loading + counter trend expansion. 1) Since 21q4, “bottom of real estate policy + broad real estate market (affordable housing)” + landing of credit risk + stabilization and decline of raw material prices, and the expected bottom of brand building materials has been established. 2) From the 14-year and 18-year recovery, the expected bottom of the real estate corresponds to the bottom of the valuation of brand building materials. 3) Leading enterprises have enhanced their competitiveness and highlighted their growth (category expansion and application expansion) during the pressure period of the industry. The credit impairment of major enterprises has been implemented in 21 years, and the performance and valuation are expected to be restored in 22 years. Brand building materials, brand building materials, brand building materials, brand building materials. Leading enterprises have advantages in terms of brand / Channel / cost / capital, etc. both in terms of competitiveness and growth, they have the ability to cross cycles, and in terms of competitiveness and growth, they have the ability to go through cycles, and in the process of building the bottom, they are the first to break through the encirclement, seize the leading position, take the lead in the process of building the bottom, take the lead in the process of building the bottom, and actively lay out the leading. We recommend Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) \ , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , it is suggested to pay attention to China Liansu, Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) .
Under the expected warming of steady growth, the cost performance of cement sector allocation is prominent. We believe that although there is a small single digit decline in demand in 22 years, it is expected to remain at a high platform period of more than 2 billion tons. Under the contraction of demand, the willingness of enterprise supply coordination is expected to increase. The cross shareholding of leading enterprises is expected to jointly lead the optimization of the industry, and the coal price is still rising, which is expected to promote the price to remain high. In the medium and long term, the dual carbon policy and dual control of energy consumption promote the optimization of the industry pattern. The industry has entered the integration period, and competition and cooperation gradually replace competition. Leading enterprises actively distribute aggregate, commercial concrete and other markets to contribute to growth, and the cost performance is prominent at low valuations. This week, the national cement market price fluctuated downward, down 1.4% month on month. In late March, due to the recurrence of the epidemic in China’s cement market and the superposition of rainstorms in some areas, the demand fell significantly month on month, and the shipment rate of enterprises in mainstream areas generally decreased by about 20%. Affected by this, the cement price fluctuated and adjusted again. On the whole, with the end of off peak production, increased supply and high costs, enterprises are under pressure from many parties. If it cannot be alleviated before the end of the month, some regions may extend the response of off peak production. This week, the national storage capacity ratio was 61.5%, with a month on month ratio of + 2.6pct and a year-on-year ratio of + 9.0pct; The shipment rate was 55.9%, with a chain comparison of -3.9pct and a year-on-year comparison of -25.1pct. It is recommended to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , and it is recommended to focus on Chinese building materials, Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) .
Continue to focus on recommending the leader of China’s concrete water reducing agent industry Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) recommendation logic: the company’s production capacity planning is clear, and it is expected to continue to grow in the next three years, with a rising market share; The price of raw material ethylene oxide is running at a low level. At the end of September, the price increase of the company is gradually implemented, and the gross profit margin in 22 years may increase significantly; The company’s functional materials (such as anti crack and anti-seepage agent, wind power grouting material, etc.) maintain a high growth, and is expected to grow into an admixture platform enterprise.
Building glass prices continued to fall; The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized. The average price of float glass this week was 2113 yuan / ton (Mom – 153, yoy – 163); Weekend inventory of 56.45 million heavy containers (mom + 273, yoy + 2699); The production capacity of glass in production is 173000 T / D (mom -0.06). This week, China’s float glass market was weak and downward, and prices in many places fell by different ranges. After the recent price reduction in some regions, the profit has dropped to a low level, and the adjustment intention has weakened. With the effective digestion of the inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the south, the price in South China has increased slightly recently, and a certain amount of goods have been replenished in the lower reaches. On the whole, the new orders are still insufficient. The processing plant just needs replenishment and pays attention to the sustainability of trading volume. We believe that under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. Considering that the newly added capacity is at a high level and the supply utilization rate of the industry is limited; In addition, at present, in the production line, the proportion of kiln age production capacity of 8-10 years / 10-12 years / more than 12 years is 13.2% / 8.3% / 5.9% respectively. Cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. We expect the glass price to remain at a good level throughout the year. In terms of photovoltaic glass, the mainstream quotation of 3.2mm coating at the end of this week was 26 yuan / square (the same month on month, year-on-year – 32%); Inventory days are about 20.9 days (Mom – 8%, yoy – 2%); The production capacity is 45000 T / D (mom + 3%, yoy + 33%). For photovoltaic glass, the new supply under the dual control of energy consumption may be less than expected, and the price at the bottom of the industrial cycle may be upward elastic. Optimistic about the revenue proportion of traditional glass enterprises in the field of photovoltaic glass and improve their cost competitiveness. Continue to focus on recommending Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and suggest paying attention to Xinyi Glass, CSG a, Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , etc; At the same time, we continue to recommend photovoltaic glass leading Xinyi solar energy and Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; Demand is lower than expected; Excessive new capacity; Poor capital turnover.
