Key investment points
[14th five year plan for energy system: accelerate the construction of scenery base and promote BIPV] on March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on printing and distributing the 14th five year plan for modern energy system. The notice mentioned that the development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation should be accelerated. Accelerate the construction of distributed wind power and distributed photovoltaic in the load center and surrounding areas, and promote the application of low wind speed wind power technology. In areas with good wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) resource endowment, orderly promote the centralized development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, and accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas. Actively promote the development and utilization of roof photovoltaic in industrial parks and economic development zones, and promote the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and construction. Carry out hydrogen production demonstration of wind power and photovoltaic power generation.
[issuance of the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan] on March 21, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on printing and distributing the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan. The notice points out that by 2025, the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development from the initial stage of commercialization, and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application. Among them, the performance of electrochemical energy storage technology is further improved, and the system cost is reduced by more than 30%; Steam extraction and energy storage of thermal power and nuclear power units rely on new energy storage technology of conventional power supply and energy storage technology of 100MW compressed air to realize engineering application; Megawatt flywheel energy storage and other mechanical energy storage technologies are gradually mature; Breakthroughs have been made in long-time scale energy storage technologies such as hydrogen energy storage and hot (cold) energy storage. By 2030, new energy storage will be fully market-oriented. The new core energy storage technology and equipment are independent and controllable, and the technological innovation and industrial level are firmly in the forefront of the world.
According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on March 25, the mainstream price of electrolytic cobalt in China was 55 Xiamen Xiangyu Co.Ltd(600057) 7000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 2000 yuan / ton lower than last week. Cobalt sulfate was reported at 1195120500 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The average price of Co3O4 was RMB 44000447000 / ton, an increase of RMB 1000 / ton compared with last week. In terms of cobalt, it is expected that the price of electric cobalt will continue to fluctuate next week. The epidemic will affect downstream production and demand is weak. Prices will remain stable or slightly downward in the near future. [lithium] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on March 25, the quotation of metal lithium was 3.104-3.164 million yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 8000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The mainstream price of battery grade lithium carbonate was reported at 5 Shenzhen Fountain Corporation(000005) 06000 yuan / ton, and the average price was flat compared with last week. The quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particle) is 488000495000 yuan / ton, with the average price rising by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last week. In terms of lithium, in the future, it is expected that enterprises will start the Reserve Mining of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate next week. However, due to the easing of the overall shortage of lithium salt spot and the weak increase in demand for materials in April, the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide may be in a stable state. [ternary materials] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on March 25, the price of ternary materials (type 523) was 3675374400 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The quotation of ternary precursor (type 523) is 153 Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) 500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as that of last week. Lithium salt on the cost side increased steadily, the precursor decreased slightly driven by nickel price, and the overall manufacturing cost decreased slightly. On the demand side, due to the impact of nickel price and the general rise of terminal vehicle price, the demand on the power side in the second quarter is still uncertain, and the demand on the non power side is weak. In the future, it is expected that the price will rise slightly with the rise of precursor costs. [lithium iron phosphate cathode] according to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, on March 25, the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 159500164500 yuan / ton, with the average price unchanged from last week. The price of lithium iron phosphate (energy storage type) is 1485152500 yuan / ton, and the average price is the same as last week. It’s highly recommended to focus on: ‘s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 35.
[the epidemic disrupted the pace of the photovoltaic supply chain and the price was deadlocked before the end of the month] according to pvinfolink data, on March 23, the mainstream quotation of [silicon material] polysilicon dense material was 243000 yuan / ton, and the average price was the same as that of last week. In the first quarter, the production level of crystal pulling increased significantly, driving the rapid increase of silicon material consumption and effectively eliminating the silicon material inventory at the beginning of the year. Although there is still room for improvement in the growth of production materials for crystal pulling in the second quarter, the growth of silicon material demand will focus on the new production capacity to be released. It is expected that the supply-demand relationship of silicon material link will improve slightly in the second quarter, but there will be no surplus. [silicon chip] the mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal silicon chip is 6.700 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer is 8.850 yuan / PC, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The price of monocrystalline silicon wafer has maintained a stable trend, but the regions of crystal pulling production are relatively concentrated. The recent outbreak of the epidemic and the upgrading of the degree of control in many places in China have indeed caused considerable trouble to the efficiency of goods delivery and logistics. [cell] the mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal perc cell is 1.140 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 210mm single crystal perc battery is 1.150 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. China’s epidemic continues to intensify, local logistics have been affected, and silicon wafer procurement will become more and more difficult. The price rise of battery manufacturers has been suppressed. Due to the slowdown of logistics and downstream procurement, the possibility of accumulation of battery inventory from March to April is not ruled out. Battery manufacturers plan to reduce the operating rate. If the epidemic continues to heat up, the price of battery chips will still play a game with the component factory under the shortage of materials. However, measuring the component has been unable to accept the higher price level, and the subsequent expected price will remain stable. [components] the mainstream quotation of 365375 / 440450w single crystal single glass perc components is 1.870 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as last week. The mainstream quotation of 182mm single crystal single glass perc module is 1.890 yuan / W, and the average price is the same as that of last week. This week, the components were still squeezed by the terminal acceptance and the rise of the supply chain, and there were few orders in March. [photovoltaic glass] the mainstream price of 3.2mm coating is reported as 26.0 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as that of last week. The mainstream quotation of 2.0mm coating is 20.0 yuan / m2, and the average price is the same as last week. Key recommendations focus on the following: ‘ Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) \ , Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.Ltd(300019) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) .
Risk tip: the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is less than expected, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the sharp fluctuation of raw material prices affects the industry demand, and other unexpected explosion risks.
