Key investment points
[Key words this week]: terminal car enterprises set off a price rise; China has strengthened the construction of resource guarantee system for lithium, cobalt and nickel to ensure supply and price stability; In February, China imported about 7200 tons of cobalt intermediates and metal tons, a decrease of 4.9% month on month, and logistics problems still exist; In February, Myanmar’s rare earth mines were hardly imported
Market review: the terminal demand continues to increase, the supply is difficult to meet in the short term, the commodity prices of energy metals have reached an all-time high, the profits of the industrial chain are further concentrated to the upstream, the game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain is significantly intensified, and the commodity growth is slowing down: 1) the procurement of lithium and downstream material plants is slowing down, the output at the supply end is gradually increasing, and the rise of lithium price is slowing down. This week, China’s spot price of lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium concentrate increased by 1.8% respectively; 2) Rare earth: downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and the purchase demand weakened. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 3.9% to 995000 yuan / ton; In terms of medium and heavy rare earths, the quotation of dysprosium oxide decreased by 4.4%, and the quotation of terbium oxide decreased by 4.2%; 3) The quotations of cobalt, MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.6% and 0.6% month on month respectively; 4) Nickel: under the short-term capital game, nickel price fluctuation increased, and LME nickel decreased by 2.61% month on month.
Affected by the rising price of new cars in the energy industry chain. Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, declining subsidies and chip shortage, Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , Xiaopeng automobile, Nezha automobile, Weima and other auto companies announced price increases in the last two weeks. Since March, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases, involving nearly 40 models. Among them, Tesla has raised prices twice in five days, with some models up to 30000 yuan; In addition to the price increase of some car enterprises, Xiaopeng automobile has reduced the owner’s rights and interests such as 1000 degree free charging. On March 23, ideal automobile announced that from April 1, the price of ideal one increased by 11800 yuan.
Lithium: China’s resource security system has been strengthened, and the price of lithium carbonate has operated steadily. The price of lithium carbonate has reached 500000 yuan / ton, and “lithium supply” has become the main contradiction in the new energy vehicle industry chain. Lin nianxiu, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said at the forum of the 8th China electric vehicle 100 people’s Congress that China’s lithium resource development may enter an accelerated period by strengthening the construction of resource guarantee systems such as lithium, cobalt and nickel, continuing to ensure supply and price stability, and accelerating the construction of a diversified resource guarantee system of simultaneous development and procurement and China International.
Rare earth permanent magnet: reshaping the industry pattern. 1) On the spot side, downstream enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and the purchase demand weakened. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 3.9% to 995000 yuan / ton. We believe that under the current supply and demand pattern, the price does not have the risk of sharp decline. 2) The import of rare earth mines. Due to the epidemic, Myanmar mines were closed again in early January. In February, Myanmar mines imported about 51 tons of REO, of which the mixed rare earth carbonate was not imported; In February, the United States imported 9750 tons of ore (converted into about 5850 tons of REO according to 60% grade), an increase of 198% month on month, mainly due to the impact of import transportation in January, and the cumulative import of 7816 tons of REO from January to February.
Cobalt: with the tightening of raw materials, the price of cobalt may rise further. Affected by the high price, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream market of electrolytic cobalt. The high fluctuation of nickel price also has an impact on the demand for ternary materials, and the downstream is dominated by rigid demand procurement; The supply side logistics and transportation problem has not been alleviated, the supply of intermediate products is tight, and the cobalt inventory remains at a very low level, showing a situation of weak supply and demand.
Nickel: in the short term, under the capital game, the fluctuation of nickel price increases; In the long run, nickel prices return to fundamentals. Affected by the capital game, nickel fluctuated greatly in this cycle. LME nickel closed at US $36000 / ton, down 2.61% month on month.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry. For the upstream raw materials of new energy, such as rare earth magnetic materials, lithium cobalt copper foil, aluminum foil, etc., the short-term boom is still strong, the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle will not change, and the industrial boom is the most clear. The core standard of the core standard is the following: followingthe following of the following: followingthe following of the following: 002 ” ;, Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, industrial policy change risk, epidemic aggravation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, and the premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk.
