This week (2022.3.212022.3.25), the building materials sector (SW) rose - 3.1%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose - 1.27%, and the excess return was - 1.83%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -2.448 billion yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
The government work report further strengthens the expectation of steady growth, and the force of infrastructure investment is still an important starting point. In the first half of the year, it is expected that the supporting policies are expected to be intensively introduced. Recently, the six ministries and commissions have actively stated to stabilize the real estate, and the relaxation of the real estate margin can still be expected. With the fall of medium-term structural credit, the countercyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and recover, supporting the quarterly profit center. The supply side may maintain strict constraints on normalization, medium and long-term favorable sector profit expectations and valuation repair. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies. Cement and consumer building materials are recommended.
1. Cement sector: broad credit and steady growth are expected to continue to increase, which is expected to benefit. In the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control on the recovery of demand, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise in the medium term. With the increase of downward pressure on the economy, the growth rate of new real estate construction, construction and sales continues to be under pressure. In the first half of the year, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
2. Glass sector: the demand is weak and the price has dropped. The subsequent demand and downstream orders still need to be observed. At present, the glass demand has been affected by factors such as the real estate capital chain and the epidemic situation, and the recovery is slow. The price has dropped somewhat, and the manufacturer's inventory has increased. The subsequent price side performance needs to be driven by terminal demand or supply side factors. From a medium-term perspective, the glass supply side has entered a new stage and is expected to replicate the profit curve of the cement industry after 2018. With the strong constraint on the total supply after the tightening of industrial policy constraints, the supply side of float glass has gradually transitioned to a stage similar to that after 2017. The medium and long-term supply and demand of the industry has maintained a tight balance. In the stock competition, the boom center of the industry is expected to be significantly improved, and the volatility is expected to be significantly improved. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase in the fuel cost of the original coal-fired production line in the north from coal to gas is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (deep processing, electronics, medicine, photovoltaic glass and other industrial chain extension is quite bright, with high dividend rate), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (photovoltaic glass expands vigorously, electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
In terms of consumer building materials, the new construction and sales of short-term real estate remain weak, and the investment side remains resilient. In the first half of the year, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the high price pressure of upstream raw materials is still testing the profitability, but the price transmission and product structure adjustment are expected to hedge some of the impact; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continue to track the marginal changes of policies. Recently, the six ministries and commissions have actively stated to stabilize the real estate, and the real estate policy is expected to be phased marginal easing under the tone of maintaining stability, paying attention to the opportunities for valuation repair of building materials in the post real estate cycle; It is suggested to pay attention to 1) the leaders of engineering building materials with growth, especially the companies that have established the small b customer development and multi category sales system of sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ; It is recommended that Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
[weekly data of subdivided industries]
1. Cement: this week, the national cement market price fluctuated downward, down 1.4% month on month. The price reduction areas are Liaoning, Henan, Chongqing and Qinghai, with a range of 20-180 yuan / ton; The price rise areas include Shanxi, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, with a range of 50-100 yuan / ton. In late March, due to the recurrence of the epidemic in China's cement market and the superposition of rainstorms in some areas, the demand fell significantly month on month, and the shipment rate of enterprises in mainstream areas generally decreased by about 20%. Affected by this, the cement price fluctuated and adjusted again. On the whole, the short-term market supply and demand situation has suddenly changed, the demand has fallen periodically, the off peak production has ended, the supply has increased, and the cost remains high. Enterprises are under various pressures. If it cannot be alleviated by the end of the month, some regions may extend the off peak production response.
The average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is 554 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of + 3.33 yuan / ton and a year-on-year ratio of + 110.83 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 541.25 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 27.5 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin was 515.71 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of -2.86 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 32.14 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 485 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week and - 5 yuan / ton year-on-year.
Cement inventory in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 44%, with a week on week ratio of + 7%; Cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 69%, with a week on week ratio of + 3%; Inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 67%, with a week on week ratio of + 4%; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 72%, unchanged from last week.
2. Glass: the average price of float glass in China this week was 2113 yuan / ton, compared with -153.08 yuan / ton last week and -165.13 yuan / ton year-on-year. This week, China's float glass market was weak and downward, and prices in many places fell by different ranges. After the recent price reduction in some regions, the profit has dropped to a low level, and the adjustment intention has weakened. The original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces across the country was 56.45 million boxes, with a week-on-week increase of + 273 boxes and a year-on-year increase of + 26.99 million boxes.
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 17 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 1.065 million tons. The recent market demand is weak. Recently, the manufacturer's overall shipment is still general, and the transportation stage is limited. The price of some glass fiber yarn products of the manufacturer has been slightly reduced. The manufacturer's external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn is quoted at 10000 yuan / ton, 2400texsmc yarn at 8800 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 6500 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 71007200 yuan / ton, and 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 9200 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. There are two electronic level tank kiln lines in normal production, with an annual output of about 110000 tons. The main products are G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the price of manufacturer's electronic yarn G75 has been temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream quotation is about 10000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of class a products, including tax, is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but at present, the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large amount of self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main delivery areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and marketing of China's electronic cloth (7628 cloth) market has gradually recovered. At present, the quotation is about 3.7 yuan / meter, and the actual transaction is based on the contract.
Risk tip: repeated macro policies and sharp depreciation of exchange rate.
