Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: this week (March 18-march 26), the closing price of QinGang port increased slightly, closing 1575 yuan / ton on the 25th daily, with a weekly increase of 3.62% Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) 5500 Shanxi excellent mixing warehouse raised the price to close at 1700 yuan / ton, with a weekly change of 1.80%, and the annual price center increased by 11.48% compared with last year. Overseas coal prices operate at a high level. The port inventory is replenished, and the power plant inventory continues to be eliminated. In the future, with the gradual warming of the weather, power coal will enter the off-season.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: the marginal demand improved this week, and the price of metallurgical coal was flat. The port’s main coking coal 25 daily received 3350 yuan / ton, the price of imported coking coal increased by 0.00% weekly, and the import price difference remained 330 yuan / ton. The price of Shanxi injection coal was the same as last week, closing at 2050 yuan / ton. On the demand side, the coke price was flat during the week, and the coke oven operating rate was 78%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points over the previous week. The steel price closed at 4987 yuan / ton, up 0.69% this week, and the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace was 71.73%, down 7.39 percentage points from last week. The inventory of coking coal and injection coal is removed, and the coke inventory is slightly replenished.
Equity view: the coal sector rose 10.7% this week, leading the whole industry. The rise of the sector is mainly driven by the improvement of valuation. From a fundamental point of view, the current supply-demand relationship is still tight. Switch between light and peak seasons of thermal coal, and the high price rebounded. Pay attention to the release speed of supply, replenishment of storage and changes in overseas coal prices. Metallurgical coal prices are stable as a whole. Under the background of steady growth, pay attention to the marginal change of demand side data. Since the first quarter, prices have risen continuously and remained high, trading sentiment has been rising, and the first quarter report may exceed expectations. In the future, as listed companies release their performance one after another, the dynamic valuation of the sector is still low, and there is some room for repair. In addition, at present, the profitability of listed companies is high, the capital expenditure is declining, and the valuation level is generally lower than that of other industries. High dividends are worth looking forward to. It is suggested to pay attention to Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, with the continuous issuance of energy guarantee bonds recently, although the financing has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the interest rate spread is relatively low at this stage (slightly lower than that before the Yongmei event), but the quantile of low-grade interest rate spread is differentiated from that of medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it is better to choose the opportunity or take the best policy. For exposure, it can consider the good de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
