Food crisis refers to the food panic and crisis caused by food shortage, sharp decline in output and excessive price increase. We sorted out the background, causes and Countermeasures of several "food crises" since the 21st century.
We conclude that the causes of the global food crisis can be divided into three categories: natural factors, economic shocks and regional conflicts. These factors have changed the supply and demand pattern and trade flow of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , resulting in rising prices, which has triggered a series of chain reactions. In the past 20 years, the probability of weather change and climate anomaly has increased, which has increased the uncertainty of food supply. At the same time, the rapid development and promotion of bioenergy has increased a lot of industrial demand for many Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as corn, sugar and vegetable oil. The topic of bioenergy will continue to evolve in the future and will be a favorable factor driving Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) demand for a long time.
In 20052008, due to the superposition of extreme weather, industrial "competition" for food, population increase, regional conflict, food policy, planting area, financial crisis and other factors, food prices fluctuated greatly. From 2010 to 2012, there was a new round of rise and high volatility. In these two stages of rising grain prices, the agricultural sector, especially the planting industry chain, achieved good market excess returns. Since 2020, uncertainties have increased and the rising momentum of grain prices has not decreased.
Compared with the "rapid progress" of international grain prices, the fluctuation range of China's grain prices is generally controllable. With the rise of China's dependence on Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) imports, the impact of global food prices on China will exceed any previous "food crisis". We expect that grain prices will continue to rise in 2022, and the related targets of the planting industry chain are expected to benefit directly. It is suggested to pay attention to the main grain planting Stocks - Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) and seed concept stocks - Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and so on.
Risk tips: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the implementation of agricultural policies does not meet expectations, and the information and data used in the research report are not updated in time.
