Core view
It is expected that in March, the overall market will be affected by the spread of the epidemic, and the sales volume of electric vehicles will maintain a high increase
1. The overall passenger car market is expected to be affected by the epidemic in March. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in the first three weeks of March (from January to 20), the number of passenger cars approved / zero in the narrow sense was - 14% / - 14% year-on-year respectively, and the number of passenger cars approved / zero in the third week was - 21% / - 29% year-on-year respectively. Since March (especially the third week), the car market has been significantly affected by the spread of the epidemic. The passenger Federation predicts that the impulse at the end of the month will drive the sales volume to rise in the fourth week of March. The retail volume of passenger cars in March is expected to be 1.58 million (about 200000 affected by the epidemic), corresponding to the overall retail volume of 1q22 of about 4.92 million, a year-on-year increase of - 4%.
2. It is expected that the sales volume of electric vehicles will maintain a high increase in March, and pay attention to the impact of terminal price increase. In the first three weeks of March, the insurance volume of new energy vehicles exceeded 270000, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to maintain an 80% + growth in March. In order to cope with the decline of subsidies and the pressure of price rise in the battery supply chain, nearly 20 auto enterprises have officially announced price increases since 2022, involving more than 40 models (according to gestar). Since March, the price increases of auto enterprises have increased significantly (accounting for about 60% of the total). We have continued to pay attention to the impact of the price rise of electric vehicles on demand.
Geely Automobile and Weilai released their 2021 results this week
1. Geely Automobile: 1) the average price and gross profit of single vehicle will increase in 2021, and the net profit will be suppressed by the cost side. The company's operating revenue / net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders in 2021 were 131.72 billion yuan / 4.85 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.7% / - 12.4% respectively. In 2021, the single vehicle revenue / net profit were 88000 yuan / 4000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7000 / - 0500 respectively. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was + 1.1pct year-on-year and net profit margin was - 1.2pct year-on-year. The main reason for the decline of net profit margin was that the rate of administrative / sales expenses was + 1.7pct / + 0.7pct year-on-year respectively; 2) New energy will be fully developed in 2022. In 2022, Geely Automobile plans to launch 13 new cars, including 5 Thor super electric hybrid models, 3 Thor oil electric hybrid models, 1 alcohol electric hybrid model, extremely krypton pure electric MPV, 2 Geely brand SUVs and geometry brand pure electric SUVs.
2. Weilai: 1) the high growth of sales volume in 2021 drives the growth of revenue and the expansion of net loss. The revenue of Weilai 2021 / 4q21 was 36.14 billion yuan / 9.9 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 122.3% / + 49.1% respectively; In 2021, the single vehicle revenue / gross profit was 363000 yuan / 75000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 16000 yuan / + 32000 yuan respectively, and a year-on-year increase in gross profit margin of + 7.4pct; The net loss in 2021 was 10.57 billion yuan (5.61 billion yuan in 2020), and the expansion of the loss was mainly affected by the sharp rise of expenses and R & D investment year-on-year (year-on-year + 74.9% / + 84.6% respectively); 2) The commissioning of Hefei Xinqiao factory will support the growth of production and marketing scale. Weilai performance meeting pointed out that the plant construction and equipment installation of Anhui Xinqiao No. 2 factory production base have been basically completed, with a planned annual production capacity of 240000 vehicles, which is planned to be officially put into operation in 2022q3 (the first batch of models are et5).
Investment suggestion: for the whole vehicle, it is suggested to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . Suppliers of automotive electronic related parts are expected to realize domestic substitution and increase in price and volume in the acceleration of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + brake by wire), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automotive industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automotive intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicle industry is less than expected.
