How to understand that the bill interest rate continues to be lower than the certificate of deposit interest rate after the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival this year, the 1y national share rediscount interest rate and AAA 1y certificate of deposit interest rate continued to "hang upside down", with a maximum range of nearly 80bp. At present, the interest margin is maintained at 40-60bp. It is mainly due to the poor credit structure and the increased pressure on banks to stabilize and increase deposits, resulting in the deviation of bill and certificate of deposit interest rates:
(1) the credit structure is poor, and the central value of bill interest rate moves down. Since the beginning of the year, credit supply has shown three characteristics: first, institutional differentiation has increased, large state-owned banks and policy banks continue to play the "head goose effect", while joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized urban rural commercial banks are weak. Second, the rhythm is "low at the beginning and high at the end", and the credit supply presents the characteristics of "falling at the beginning of the month and rising at the end of the month". Third, poor structural performance. Bills and non bank loans grew rapidly. A total of about 520 billion new loans were added from January to February, an increase of more than 1 trillion year-on-year, far exceeding the year-on-year increase of various loans. After the end of the Spring Festival, the overall interest rate dropped by about 1.1m BP, which was about 1.1m lower than that before the Spring Festival.
(2) the pressure on the state-owned stock bank to increase its steady deposit has increased, and the certificate of deposit has "increased both in volume and price". Although the overall credit supply is weak, the increase of institutional differentiation and the pressure of stable deposit and deposit increase still make the interest rate of certificate of deposit rise significantly. In February, the bank's incremental deposit loan ratio was 159%, about 63 percentage points higher than that in January. Among them, the general loans of large state-owned banks increased by 0.71 trillion, and the general deposits decreased by 0.04 trillion, significantly higher than the incremental deposit loan ratio of about 95% in January. It is estimated that the incremental deposit loan ratio of joint-stock banks in February is about 200%, which is better than that in January, but the pressure still exists. Main reasons: first, the risk appetite of residents and enterprises has decreased, the willingness of residents to expand their statements is weak, the loan amortization is strong, and some institutions shrink their statements. Second, before the Spring Festival this year, migrant workers' wages were paid intensively, which made urban bank deposits migrate to rural financial institutions. From January to February, the incremental deposit loan ratio of rural financial institutions was only 35%. Under the pressure of deposit loan ratio, state-owned banks have great demand for the issuance of long-term certificates of deposit, and there are demands for price increase. In particular, large state-owned banks have greater demand for the issuance of certificates of deposit due to higher credit prosperity and better structure. As of March 25, the net financing of 1y certificates of deposit of large state-owned banks was 211.7 billion, significantly higher than that of other banks.
How long will the "upside down" of bill and certificate of deposit interest rates last? Historically, the interest rates of 1y bills and AAA grade 1y certificates of deposit have generally maintained the same trend. The interest margin basically fluctuates up and down in a wide range around 0. The upper limit of interest margin is + 50bp and the lower limit is - 80bp. In recent years, the trend of bill discount interest rate is lower than that of certificate of deposit interest rate, which mainly occurs in the second half of 2019, the second half of 21 and the Spring Festival of 22. Before that, each round lasted for 5-8 months, and these time points are in the stage of economic pressure and insufficient demand. Because the bill interest rate is greatly affected by the rhythm of credit supply, the fluctuation range in the month is significantly higher than that of certificate of deposit, The bank's behavior of "offsetting loan with Bill" makes the bill interest rate decline greatly, resulting in the upside down of the bill and certificate of deposit interest rate. For the follow-up trend:
From the perspective of credit, the overall weak characteristics of credit supply since March have not been reversed. The central bank recently increased window guidance. Since the middle and late days, there have been signs of momentum in credit supply, and the bill interest rate has also begun to hit the bottom and rebound. However, at present, the financing demand is still dominated by large central enterprises and high-quality state-owned enterprises, the problem of insufficient effective demand of the real economy is still prominent, and the real estate sales are in a state of deep negative growth, which makes there strong uncertainty in the improvement of the follow-up credit structure. It is not ruled out that the credit rhythm "high before low" and the large scale of bill impulse will continue to appear in the follow-up non quarter end months, and the bill interest rate will fall sharply again at that time.
From the perspective of deposits, the unbalanced distribution of deposits among institutions is short-lived. Since 2021, the weighted average interest rate of deposits of listed banks has been generally maintained at about 1.7%, significantly lower than the 1y certificate of deposit interest rate. Banks will absorb deposits by moderately increasing deposit FTP. In addition, returning to work will gradually return deposits to state-owned banks, thus improving the pressure on deposit loan ratio. In this case, the bank treasurer's demand for raising the price of certificates of deposit will decline, and March to April may be the time point with the greatest pressure on the interest rate of certificates of deposit in the whole year.
On the whole, the interest rates of bills and certificates of deposit are expected to narrow periodically in the short term, but the conditions for reversing the "upside down" trend are not yet available, and the interest margin between the two will depend more on the growth boom of bank deposits and loans.
Risk tip: the credit supply is high, the continuity is not strong, and the Federal Reserve raises interest rates more than expected.
