Energy storage:
1. On March 21, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”) to ensure the high-quality and large-scale development of the energy storage industry. Compared with the guiding opinions on accelerating the development of new energy storage (hereinafter referred to as the “guiding opinions”) issued in July 2021: (1) 2025 will enter the stage of large-scale development, and the overall goal of realizing the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage will remain unchanged in 2030; (2) In the guidance, it is proposed that “the installed capacity will reach more than 30 million kilowatts by 2025”, which is not mentioned in the plan, and the corresponding expression is changed to “meet the conditions for large-scale commercial application”. Therefore, we believe that after the issuance of the guidance, all provinces have successively issued the energy storage development objectives of the 14th five year plan. According to the statistics of Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) energy storage industry technology alliance, only Qinghai, Shandong, Hunan, Zhejiang The energy storage planning of the five provinces of Inner Mongolia and China Southern Power Grid has reached 39gw, which is higher than the 30GW target set by the state. According to the prediction of the white paper 2021 on energy storage industry research, the scale of China’s energy storage market will reach 35.5gw in the conservative scenario and 55.9gw in the ideal scenario in 2025. Therefore, there is no need to emphasize it again in the programme. (3) In the 2025 target, specific requirements are put forward for various new energy storage technologies: the cost reduction target is put forward for the current relatively mature electrochemical energy storage, and various new energy storage methods such as new energy storage technology relying on conventional power supply, compressed air energy storage, flywheel energy storage, hydrogen energy storage and thermal energy storage are emphasized.
2. Valuation: under the high growth rate of the industry, the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range. With the high cost of raw materials, we expect the global energy storage industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022. Starting from the phased high point at the end of November 2021, as of March 25, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 30%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on March 25, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) PE in 2022 / 2023 is 40 / 28 times Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) in 2022 / 2023, PE is 40 / 30 times.
3. Investment: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market’s expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China’s steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on March 25, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 25 times.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
