This week’s opinion update:
The certainty of “steady growth” continues to improve, which is still the main line of recommendation: the State Council issued opinions on the implementation of the division of key work in the government work report, which proposed: keep the economic operation within a reasonable range and welcome the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress; We should put “steady growth” in a more prominent position; The policy force should be properly advanced, and the reserve policy tools should be used in time. Follow up policies are expected to usher in intensive landing. The REITs project has been substantially promoted again, and the closed infrastructure securities investment fund of Huaxia China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) expressway has been officially approved. We are firmly optimistic about the “steady growth” sector and enterprises with infrastructure operation assets.
The epidemic delayed the recovery rhythm of real estate fundamentals and continued to wait for the inflection point: the frequent epidemic not only made it difficult to release the demand for cement, glass and some consumer building materials, but also brought great difficulties to real estate sales, which greatly reduced the effect of the early real estate easing policy. The debt rollover of individual private enterprises also shows that it will take time for the real estate fundamentals to completely reverse. However, we should also note that with the beginning of the first round of centralized land supply in 22 years, the heat of land purchase in Hefei and other places has warmed up, which may indicate a certain repair of industrial confidence. The current policy direction is clear, just wait for the effectiveness of policy transmission. If the real estate sales data is observed to pick up in the later stage, the fundamental inflection point of the real estate chain can be established. It is suggested to pay attention to the consumption of building materials. We emphasize that the demand for completion has always been “guaranteed delivery”. If the capital situation of the real estate chain is alleviated, the glass market is expected to start quickly.
Sorting out the “hydrogen related” targets of building materials: Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited(601868) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , Guangdong No.2 Hydropower Engineering Company Ltd(002060) , Huadian Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(601226) , Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co.Ltd(600820) .
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was – 3.73%, of which the decline of other special materials was the smallest (- 1.15%), and the decline of other decorative materials was the largest (- 6.09%); This week, CITIC construction index was – 0.84%, of which the housing construction sector increased the most (+ 4.01%), and the architectural design and service II sector decreased the most (- 3.18%); This week, the public infrastructure REITs sector increased by an average of + 3.07% (arithmetic average), of which laterite Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) REIT rose the most (+ 9.38%), and Soochow Suyuan industrial REIT fell the most (- 0.09%).
High frequency data (3.19-3.25): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 510 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 0.30%; The storage capacity ratio is 61.50% and the chain ratio is + 2.62pct. Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 2107 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 5.81%; The inventory was 61.31 million heavy boxes, a month on month increase of + 6.03%. The average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was 26 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass is 20.00 yuan / m2, which is the same month on month; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn this week was 6450 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 10000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); In the direction of capital construction, pay attention to the elasticity of cement and some pipeline enterprises (it is suggested to pay attention to: Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ); The purchasing point of consumer building materials is approaching (attention is recommended: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) etc.); Revaluation of sector value brought by public offering REITs of infrastructure construction (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.); Be optimistic about the development trend of green building industry and pay attention to the thematic opportunities of building energy conservation.
Preferred portfolio: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (16xpe, optimistic about the equipment rental track), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.5xpb, revaluation of stock operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.6xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (13xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the emission reduction trend), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (8xpe, performance elasticity of float glass and valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (24xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the building materials team’s estimate is 22 years.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
