Core view
The resurgence of energy supply concerns supports the high-level operation of industrial metals
At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still an important concern in the market. Russia requires unfriendly countries to buy natural gas and trade in rubles, pushing up the price of natural gas. High energy prices support the high price of industrial metals. At the same time, the rise in energy prices, coupled with the export ban on alumina and bauxite to Russia, has led to a continuous shortage of aluminum supply in Europe. This week, LME copper fell – 0.52% to close at US $10277 / ton; LME aluminum rose 7.22% to close at US $3625 / ton; LME lead rose 3.53% to close at US $2332 / ton; LME zinc rose 6.64% to close at US $4080 / ton; LME tin fell – 0.01% to close at US $42300 / ton; LME nickel fell – 1.67% to close at US $36300 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Strong demand supports the high shock of lithium price, and ensuring supply and stable price is mentioned again
In terms of lithium, the prices of battery grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide this week were the same as last week, with 517500 yuan / ton and 493900 yuan / ton respectively. The production at the salt lake end is still limited by the weather, the output increment is not obvious, and the supply tension remains. In terms of cobalt, the price rise slowed down, but the supply chain is still fragile, and the cobalt price is expected to remain high and volatile. In terms of nickel, at present, the nickel price still deviates from the fundamentals, the downstream acceptance is not high, and the nickel price is expected to continue to fall. At the same time, the Ministry of industry and information technology once again stressed the need to ensure supply and stabilize prices. It is expected that the prices of lithium and cobalt will fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
Tariff exemption may increase metal demand and affect downstream production
On March 23, the office of the US trade representative said that it would resume tariffs on some Chinese imports, including industrial components such as auto parts and motors, which is conducive to exports and is expected to boost China’s metal demand. In the short term, due to the repeated epidemic, the production of some downstream deep processing enterprises is affected, and the downstream demand and transportation are limited. However, March is the traditional peak consumption season, and the demand for copper, aluminum and other metals is improving, which supports the price. This week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper rose 0.92% to close at 73570 yuan / ton; Aluminum rose 2.21% to close at 23055 yuan / ton; Lead rose 1.38% to close at 15360 yuan / ton; Zinc rose 3.76% to close at 26265 yuan / ton; Tin rose 3.73% to close at 345770 yuan / ton; Nickel rose 20.15% to close at 263290 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , etc.
Hawkish remarks remain unchanged, high inflation highlights the value of precious metal allocation
As Russia announced that the sale of natural gas to unfriendly countries would be settled in rubles, energy prices rose again, and Brent crude oil rose by 11.19% this week; Although the Fed has repeatedly made hawkish remarks, the market’s concern about high inflation remains unabated. This week, spot gold in London rose 1.90% to close at US $195769/oz; The US dollar index rose 0.59% to close at 98.81; COMEX / oz closed higher at USD 195447; COMEX Silver Rose 2.54% to close at US $25.62/oz. Taking into account the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine and concerns about the level of high inflation, gold has high investment value as a hedge against risk and inflation, and the price of gold still has upward momentum.
Risk tips: the situation in Russia and Ukraine is uncertain, the downstream demand is less than expected, the policy is uncertain, and the epidemic situation is deteriorating.
