Investment advice
Multiple negative superimposition, the market is still at the bottom of the region. Since the beginning of the year, multiple bad news have gathered, such as the reversal of China US monetary policy, the outbreak of geopolitical events in Russia and Ukraine, and the repeated covid-19 epidemic since March. Judging from the risk premium of the whole A-share market, it is close to the level during the trade war at the end of 2018 and the outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of 2020, which is 87% in the past seven years. Therefore, A-Shares as a whole are obviously at the bottom, and the cost performance of equity assets is prominent.
The epidemic suppresses consumption, and subsequent repair is still expected. External market shocks and more capital flows have brought about valuation disturbances, and repeated epidemics have a substantial impact on the fundamentals of consumer enterprises. Whether it is to kill valuation or performance, as long as the company’s long-term logic has not changed, the short-term crisis is also a buying opportunity. The process of A-share risk premium returning from the periodic high point to the historical average in the past 18 and 20 years. Linear extrapolation may complete the repair of this round of market fluctuations in the third quarter of 2022. Most industries with large consumption can rise synchronously with the overall market, among which the food and beverage and household appliances industries may rise beyond the overall market.
Inflation expectations fermented, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector generally rose. Since the beginning of this year, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice have generally risen, and the prices have exceeded the highs of nearly 10 years. Part of China’s grain is more dependent on the external market. In the face of the impact of the geographical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, American inflation and the arid climate in the Americas, the grain price may remain high for 22 years. It is suggested to pay attention to the growing chain and accelerate the pig cycle of capacity removal due to the upward feed cost.
Market Review
Rise and fall range: the overall decline of the primary industry of large consumption is more or less, and it is still in the bottom stage. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (3.9%), beauty care (1.6%), textile and clothing (1.0%) led the increase, while food and beverage (- 3.5%), social services (- 2.6%) and household appliances (- 2.5%) led the decline.
Turnover: the overall average daily turnover of large consumer industries was 134.2 billion yuan, down 15.4% on a weekly basis, accounting for 14.1% of the overall daily turnover of a shares.
Capital flow
A-share liquidity tracking: capital outflow narrowed. Equity financing – 29.76 billion yuan; Shareholders’ reduction of – 10.62 billion yuan; New Development Fund + 5.45 billion yuan; Financing capital + 4.54 billion yuan; The capital of land port link was – 15.43 billion yuan.
Main capital flow: all industries are in a state of net outflow, and the net outflow amount of main capital in food and beverage, media and Commerce and retail sectors is large Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery), Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage) ranks first in the net inflow of main funds.
Northward capital flow: the northward net capital outflow of various industries decreased significantly, and only food and beverage still had a net outflow of 4.83 billion yuan New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery), Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (household appliances), Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) (beauty care,) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the north.
Southward capital flow: last week, the food and beverage, leisure services, textile and garment industries ranked first in the net southward capital flow. Li Ning (textile and clothing), Shenzhou International (textile and clothing) and Yuewen group (media) ranked first in the amount of southward net capital inflow
Transaction dynamics
Market sentiment: financing transactions accounted for 6.73% (6.59% last week); The seller’s recommendation index was 145.2, which remained high; The turnover rate of Shanghai stock market was 0.9% (0.8% last week), and that of Shenzhen stock market was 2.1% (2.1% last week).
Hot topics: biological breeding, feed, pig industry, chicken industry and prefabricated vegetables.
Risk tips
The risk of repeated outbreaks, external shocks and market fluctuations
