Sector market review
This week (03 / 21-03 / 25), the transportation index fell 3.71%, the CSI 300 index fell 2.14%, underperformed the market by 1.57%, ranking 25 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the bus sector increased the most (4.42%), and the express sector decreased the most (- 8.29%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: the epidemic situation in many places across the country has been repeated, some transit centers and outlets have been closed, and express delivery in many places has been interrupted periodically. The express business volume is expected to decline, and there are many sector callback. From January to February, the consolidated business volume of the industry increased by 19.62% year-on-year, and the business volume of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong increased by 30.71%, 27.77% and 38.96% year-on-year. The business volume of Jitu’s acquisition of Baishi China Express overflowed. We expect the growth rate of head express enterprises to be higher than that of the industry. The industry entered the off-season in March, and the price side remained stable. The performance of express delivery enterprises has entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the main business data from January to February 2022, with the completion of express business of 2.297 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 27.81%; The operating revenue was about 7.624 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 18.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 36.5% S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%. SF intends to repurchase some of the company’s shares for employee stock ownership plan or equity incentive. The total amount of funds to be repurchased shall not be less than RMB 1 billion and not more than RMB 2 billion, and the repurchase price shall not exceed RMB 70 / share.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After the accidents of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the strict supervision restricts the supply of the industry, the demand side still increases every year, and the performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain. Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) released the 2021 annual report, realizing a net profit attributable to the parent company of 432 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49.67%. It is expected to maintain a high growth this year and next. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Airport: after the “March 21” China Eastern Airlines mu5735 aircraft flight accident, the Civil Aviation Administration went all out to carry out relevant work, and issued a notice on March 22 to immediately carry out a two-week industrial safety inspection, strengthen the investigation of potential safety hazards in the field of civil aviation, so as to ensure the absolute safety of aviation operation and the absolute safety of people’s lives. From March 27, 2022, the national civil aviation will implement the flight plan for summer and autumn flight season in 2022. International liberalization is still slow, and SIA season continues to revolve around internal circulation. If the transit and connecting flights are calculated by two shifts, the weekly flight volume of SIA in the season of Air China is 123850, an increase of 7% year-on-year in the summer and autumn flight season of 2021 and 16% compared with the summer and autumn flight season of 2019 before the epidemic. Starting from March 5, the fuel surcharge of air tickets on Chinese routes was raised to 20 yuan or 40 yuan, covering some of the rising fuel costs. Paxlovid is an important means to treat covid-19 and catalyzes the release of international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. The success of covid-19 drug research and development will help restore normal production and life, strengthen vaccination and accelerate the promotion of vaccines, the restriction policy is expected to be relaxed, the operation of airports will be significantly improved, the investment value of the sector is prominent, and it is recommended to actively allocate, with emphasis on Air China Limited(601111) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) .
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 327490 points, down 0.79% month on month; The SCFI index was 443407 points, down 2.3% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 111200, down 1.3% month on month and up 48.7% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 933.00, down 6.1% month on month and up 38.4% year on year.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
