Market review:
Last week (March 21-march 25, 2022), the Shenwan machinery equipment industry index rose by – 1.4% and the CSI 300 index rose by – 2.1%. The machinery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.7pct. Ten sectors of Shenwan’s 31 primary industries rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 17th, with the overall performance in the middle reaches.
Focus on:
The national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration issued the modern energy system plan for the 14th five year plan, which requires to grasp the window period of low-carbon energy transformation and accelerate the development of wind power generation. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China achieved remarkable results in low-carbon transformation, with non fossil energy consumption accounting for 15.9%, wind power and photovoltaic installed CAGR of 16.6% and 44.3%. According to the plan, by 2025, the proportion of China’s non fossil energy consumption will increase to 20% and the proportion of power generation will reach 39%; By 2030, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach 25%; In 2035, renewable energy power generation will become the main power supply, and the construction of new power system will achieve substantial results. In terms of new energy power generation such as solar energy, we will promote the construction of distributed solar energy, orderly promote the development of centralized solar energy, actively promote the integrated application of photovoltaic power generation and construction, and carry out solar hydrogen production.
Key data update: 1) photovoltaic equipment: from January to February, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China increased by 10.86gw, a year-on-year increase of 234%; The newly installed capacity of wind power was 5.73gw, a year-on-year increase of 61%. The national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration officially issued the implementation plan for the development of new energy storage in the 14th five year plan, and proposed to carry out pilot demonstration of new energy storage in combination with the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas Jiangsu Zhongli Group Co.Ltd(002309) announced that it plans to invest 5 billion yuan in the construction of 5GW heterojunction battery and 5GW photovoltaic module projects. The IPO of Runyang Co., Ltd. was accepted, and it is proposed to raise 4 billion yuan to invest in 50000 tons of high-purity polycrystalline silicon project, 5GW heterojunction cell production project and supplement working capital. 2) Semiconductor equipment: according to semi’s latest forecast, the equipment expenditure of global front-end wafer factories will increase by 18% year-on-year in 2022, reaching a record high of US $107 billion. 3) Construction machinery: CME estimated that the sales volume of excavators (including exports) in March was about 40000 units, with a year-on-year increase of – 49%. The sales volume in the Chinese market was estimated to be 31000 units, with a growth rate of – 58%. The decline in sales growth in the Chinese market was further expanded; The estimated sales volume in the export market is 9000 units, with a growth rate of 49%. The sales volume in the export market reaches a new high.
Key points of the industry:
Photovoltaic equipment: the planned production expansion of silicon wafer in 22 years will not be reduced, and the mass production of n-type battery will be accelerated. Last year, the production of silicon wafer was expanded by about 150gw on a large scale, with a year-on-year increase of 40.7% to 227gw. The market is worried about the deterioration of the competition pattern of silicon wafer and the slowdown of production expansion this year. However, according to our statistics, the scale of silicon wafer expansion this year is expected to exceed that of last year, reaching more than 150gw. In terms of 200 million yuan / GW equipment investment, the demand for silicon wafer equipment in 22 years will be 30 billion yuan. In terms of battery chips, at present, the planned capacity of n-type technical route TOPCON and hjt is as high as 162gw and 153.5gw respectively. It is expected that TOPCON will be the first to usher in large-scale production this year, with a new capacity of 50gw. With the gradual release of silicon material production capacity this year, the price of silicon material is expected to decline, the profitability of battery chip link is improved, and the investment in battery chip link of downstream manufacturers is promoted. We are optimistic about the equipment leader with abundant silicon chip production capacity and leading technology and the battery chip equipment leader with leading technology.
Semiconductor equipment: in 22 years, China’s downstream wafer factories were in the period of expansion, and some wafer factories were promoted to full capacity. According to the global data, the global semiconductor industry sales in January were US $50.7 billion, up + 26.8% year-on-year and – 0.2% month on month. In January, the shipment volume of semiconductor equipment in Japan reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of + 69.4%, confirming the shortage of semiconductor equipment. Superimposing on the recent Japanese earthquake, it may exacerbate the shortage of chip supply, achieve technological breakthroughs in three sub areas, and look forward to the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment with the continuous improvement of localization rate under the increase of downstream capital expenditure and domestic substitution.
Lithium battery equipment: in February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase, and the market penetration reached 19.2%. China Automobile Association released the production and sales data of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles in mid February, with an output of 368000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 197.5% and a month on month increase of – 18.6%; The sales volume was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of + 184.3% and a month on month increase of – 22.6%. Power battery manufacturers actively shipped. In February, China’s power battery output was 31.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 236.2%; The installed capacity of power battery was 13.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 145.1%. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , zhongchuangxin aviation, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) to 2025, the capacity planning is 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively; GGII predicts that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market will exceed 5.5 million in the middle of 2022, and the market penetration rate will exceed 20%. With the acceleration of global electrification and the active expansion of battery enterprises, lithium battery equipment has fully benefited. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of lithium battery equipment brought by new technologies such as 4680.
Risk factors: the downstream demand is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies the risk, and the epidemic disturbance risk.
