Industry core view:
2022.3.212022.3.25: the decline of new power industry this week was – 4.05%, and the decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the same period was – 2.14%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.91pct. It ranks 30th among Shenwan’s 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: China Central Television News reported that during the “14th five year plan” period, China Southern Power Grid will invest 10 billion yuan to vigorously promote the construction of charging facilities. It is expected that by the end of next year, it will first realize the full coverage of township charging piles in five provinces and regions of Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan. On March 22, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system. The plan points out that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for about 20%. Optimize the layout of charging infrastructure, comprehensively promote the coordinated development of vehicle piles, promote the two-way interaction of energy and information between electric vehicles and smart grid, and carry out the pilot demonstration of new charging and replacement electric field stations combining light, storage, charging and replacement. We believe that the improvement of new energy vehicle infrastructure will promote the continuous improvement of new energy vehicle penetration, and low-end models will occupy the mainstream. We are optimistic that the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries equipped with low-end models will be further improved in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant cathode targets.
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, on March 21, the National Energy Administration released the statistical data of the national power industry from January to February. By the end of February, China’s installed power generation capacity was about 2.39 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation is about 320 million KW, with a year-on-year increase of 22.7%. We believe that with the increase of silicon output month by month, the output scale of modules will increase accordingly. It is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaic will increase sharply in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ( Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) ) and Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ( Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) ). In terms of wind power, according to the statistics of the national power industry from January to February released by the national energy administration, the installed capacity of wind power from January to February was about 330 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. In addition, the 14th five year plan for modern energy system proposes to carry out hydrogen production demonstration of wind power and photovoltaic power generation. Encourage the construction of offshore wind power bases and promote the distribution of offshore wind power to Deep-water and far shore areas. The policy promotes the extensive layout of wind power, and it is suggested to pay attention to the wind power equipment sector.
Hydrogen energy: on March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035). The plan defines the energy attribute of hydrogen, which is an integral part of the future national energy system, gives full play to the clean and low-carbon characteristics of hydrogen energy, and promotes the green and low-carbon transformation of energy terminals such as transportation and industry and industries with high energy consumption and high emission. In addition, the plan puts forward the objectives of various stages of the development of hydrogen energy industry: by 2025, basically master the core technology and manufacturing process, the number of fuel cell vehicles is about 50000, deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations, the hydrogen production capacity of renewable energy will reach 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, and the carbon dioxide emission reduction will be 1-2 million tons / year. By 2030, a relatively complete technological innovation system for hydrogen energy industry and a clean energy hydrogen production and supply system will be formed to effectively support the realization of the carbon peak goal. By 2035, a diversified application ecology of hydrogen energy will be formed, and the proportion of hydrogen production from renewable energy in terminal energy consumption will increase significantly. The strategic position of hydrogen energy in the national energy system has been determined. It is suggested to pay attention to the relevant targets related to the hydrogen energy industry chain, such as Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ( Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) ), Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ( Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) ).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic situation, the work is less than expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
