Zhou’s views and investment suggestions
Catering: 2h21 ~ 1q22 industry is still under pressure under the background of repeated epidemic. We pay attention to the current positive measures such as the optimization of the structure of leading brand stores, the polishing of new brands, the improvement of supply chain and the adjustment of organizational structure, and look forward to the elastic release of future performance. 1) Yum China: the revenue of 21 years was USD 9.85 billion / + 19.2%, which was due to the rapid opening of stores and the increase of guest traffic brought by the extension of business hours. KFC’s profit pressure mainly came from the decline of same store sales and the increase of employee expense rate. Due to the repeated epidemic, the same store sales of the company from January to February of 22 years fell by about 4% compared with the same period last year, still down by about 40% compared with 19 years. 2) Jiumaojiu: the performance of Taier’s continuous store expansion + standardized operation support has been growing, the proportion of Taier has been improved, and the structure has been further optimized. From January to February of 22, Taier and jiumaojiu have recovered to about 90% in the same period of 19. At present, the company is building a new supply chain center to lay the foundation for cost control, quality assurance and future store expansion plan. However, under the background of the aggravation of the epidemic in March, it is expected that the recovery and opening of 1H22 same stores will be dragged down to some extent. 3) Haidilao: the CEO took office and made internal adjustments such as restoring the regional management system, adjusting the assessment mechanism and strengthening product innovation. The woodpecker plans to close 260 stores in the next 2h21, of which the first and second tier cities are the focus of store structure optimization. The turnover rate is stable in the second half of the year. We look forward to the results after the adjustment in the future.
Hotels: 2h21 overseas recovery is better than that in China, and 1H22 is expected to remain under pressure in China. We pay attention to the promotion of Huazhu lean development strategy. 1) Huazhu group: in 21 years, the revenue was 12.79 billion yuan / + 25.4%, and the net loss was 470 million yuan / 78.8%. Under the lean growth strategy, the stores expanded steadily. In the second half of the year, the business recovery in China was repeatedly dragged down by the epidemic, and the recovery abroad accelerated in the second half of the year. In the future, it will focus on breaking through the market in West and South China and continue to penetrate into low-level cities; The structure should be optimized in the direction of asset light, medium and high-end and high-quality. RevPAR recovered to 75% / 83% / 64% in the same period in 2019 from January / February / March of 22, which is still affected by the repeated epidemic. 2) Hilton Hotel: 21 year revenue of USD 5.79 billion / + 34.4%, net profit of 4.5% $100 million, smooth turnaround; 3) Hyatt: revenue of US $3.03 billion / + 46.6% in 21 years, net loss of US $220 million / loss reduction of 68.4%.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the high efficiency of the main brand single store model, maintain a stable pace of store expansion and supplement the takeout business of jiumaojiu and Yum china-s. under the repeated epidemic situation, the demand for prefabricated dishes at the family end is released. It is suggested to pay attention to Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) . The hotel pays attention to the industrial rebound opportunities in the future recovery process, and it is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Huazhu group – S.
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: last week (2022 / 3 / 21 ~ 2022 / 3 / 25), CSI 300 and hang seng index fell 2.1%, 0.04% and social services (Shenwan) fell 2.6% respectively. In breakdown, catering A shares and Hong Kong stock indexes fell 0.4% and 2.0% respectively, hotel A shares and Hong Kong stock indexes fell 5.7% and 1.1% respectively.
Industry news: 1) on March 23, the CEO of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (China) often initiated and issued a letter to the partners of Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (China) franchisees, and issued a number of policies that can solve the urgent cash flow of franchisees, such as reduction, exemption, relief and assistance, so as to help franchisees overcome difficulties. 2) Shanghai global port and Shenzhen have successively issued catering support policies, and the demand for community group purchase and prefabricated vegetables has surged under the epidemic.
Announcement of key companies: jiumaojiu issued a dividend announcement, with a cash dividend of 0.06 HKD per share. Jiumaojiu, Haidilao and Huazhu group-s announced the results of 2021.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation is repeated, the recovery of terminal demand is less than expected, the industry competition is intensified, and the price of raw materials fluctuates
